WWOD?

What will Obama do?

Given the hammering the President’s party received at the 2010 midterms, the following months will provide an excellent case study in executive leadership.

Part of me wants to point students to putting half an eye on questions about the presidency in next summer’s exams. The other parts simply wants students of Politics to take note of what will surely be a fascinating period of presidential politics. Either way, what should crop up is a rich vein of material relating to the following:

Why are some presidents more successful than others?

Do second term presidencies inevitably mean lame ducks?

Why do great men not become great presidents?

Is the power of the president merely the power to persuade?

All of these questions will surely be answered in Technicolor over the next few months.

Will Obama try to move to the centre to compromise with the GOP? Well, the thing is that Obama has been reaching across the aisle since the early days of his presidency. And in return, what has he got? Nada.

This is why he has over the last six months or so taken to airing bitter attacks on his Republican opponents. It was never clear to me why he put out his hand on health care and the stimulus. It seemed obvious that the Republicans (a party about as clueless as a headless chicken) had no viable alternatives and was intent on saying no to anything that originated in the White House. But Obama did try the odd olive branch, and seemingly got frustrated in the end with the lack of reciprocation.

Many pundits have suggested that Obama tries to move to the centre, a la Clinton post the 1994 elections. Instead, some suggest he stick to his guns and prove that the GOP are what’s holding America back. Here is a link to a good article laying out the pros and cons of the two approaches.

Some who have turned to the dark side, such as Dick Morris, suggest that Obama has moved so far to the left that there is no centre to move to. It sounds to me like getting your defence in early. See this article from dickmorris.com.

Whatever happens, students need a heads up. The reshuffling of the executive office and its ability to strategize is worth watching. Can Obama provide the necessary narrative of the presidency in the same way he did as a candidate? A mile and a half (the distance supposedly between the two branches of government on Pennsylvania Avenue) is a long way, and can Obama successfully bridge this divide? If so, how is he going to go about it?

Everything’s to play for and one wonders if we will see a repeat of the fireworks of 1995-95 when the federal government shut down. History doesn’t repeat itself, but often it does rhyme.