Who are the voters that might decide the 2024 election?

This video featuring Prof John Curtice is politics gold

Scholars of Politics will know that election strategies focus on two main outcomes. One is by energising the base, that is getting out the core vote. Secondly, winning over the undecideds. This clip of a radio interview with one of Britain's best known psephologists takes a deeper look at the importance of swing voters.

Questions:

1. What are the six categories of UK voters identified by the National Centre for Social Research?

2. Which group is considered to be in the bag for the Conservative Party, and what are their political leanings?

3. Describe the Urban Progressives group and their political inclinations.

4. Who are the Soft Left Liberals, and which parties do they tend to support?

5. Explain the characteristics of the Well-Off Traditionalists group and their voting tendencies.

6. How does Professor Sir John Curtis differentiate between the Open Progressives and the Soft Left Liberals in terms of political ideology?

7. Which group is seen as a potential target for Reform party based on recent trends, and why might they be inclined towards this party?

Correct answers:

1. Middle Britain, Urban Progressives, Soft Left Liberals, Left Behind Patriots, Well-Off Traditionalists, Apolitical Centrists.

2. The Well-Off Traditionalists are firmly in the bag for the Conservative Party. They are right-wing on economic issues, not concerned about inequality, and socially conservative.

3. Urban Progressives are young, middle-class professionals who are left-wing on economic issues, liberal on social issues, and heavily engaged in politics, mostly supporting Labour or Greens.

4. Soft Left Liberals are University-educated, politically engaged individuals who are liberal on social issues but more centrist on economic matters. They tend to vote for Green, LibDem, or Labour parties.

5. The Well-Off Traditionalists are highly politically engaged, living in rural areas with socially conservative views. They are patriotic, voted for Brexit, and have conservative social outlooks.

6. Open Progressives are likened to Corbynites, while Soft Left Liberals are compared to Blairites. Ed Davy of the Liberal Democrats tends to perform well among Soft Left Liberals.

7. The group that may be targeted by the Reform party is economically left-wing but socially conservative. This group was previously inclined to vote for UKIP and now shows signs of supporting Reform.

Questions for wider discussion

1. How do you think the different categories of UK voters mentioned in the video transcript influence political outcomes?
2. Do you believe that political parties should focus more on appealing to certain voter groups or try to attract a broader range of voters?
3. Which voter group mentioned in the video transcript do you think has the most significant impact on election results?
4. In your opinion, how important is it for political parties to understand the preferences and values of different voter groups in order to win elections?