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Were you up for Portillo redux?

Mike McCartney

25th June 2024

Will we see a repeat of that famous night in at GE97 when a host of big hitters lost their seats?

This time of course, however, it may well include an ex-PM in Liz Truss.

A quick rewind back to election night 1997. That year's election may be one students have used as a case study, so I'll be brief. Labour had been streets ahead in the polls since Britain was ejected from the ERM during John Major's premiership. By 1997 the Conservatives had been in power for nearly two decades, they had lost their reputation for economic competence, were heavily tainted by sleaze allegations, and were internally divided over Europe - at the time over Europe, and it affected Major's status as leader. I could go on about the lack of parallels on the Labour leadership side, but that's for another day.

The 'Portillo Moment' is shorthand for when a member of government loses their seat at election time. In the Conservative wipeout of 97, Portillo lost what was regarded as a safe Tory seat to Stephen Twigg. The Portillo Moment phrase has been widened to include senior members of a party who have at one stage served as ministers. For instance, other big beast casualties at subsequent elections include Ed Balls in 2015.

According to a recent Guardian article, over 30 Conservative big beasts could be ejected by their constituency in just a couple of weeks from now. Plus there are nearly two dozen who are set to step down. Among the former who are strongly tipped to be defeated include ex-leader Iain Duncan Smith and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. And those whose seat as an MP is on a knife edge is ex-PM Liz Truss.

The Guardian article, with a great set of graphics is available online here.

SkyNews go in search of Liz Truss in her constituency in the clip below. Quite useful in considering the importance of any incumbency effect...

Mike McCartney

Mike is an experienced A-Level Politics teacher, author and examiner.

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