Voting behaviour at GE24: why Scotland matters

Events north of the border could be important this year

If Keir Starmer is to be sure of a large majority this year, how many Labour MPs the Scottish electorate provide will be important.

Historically Labour has relied on Scottish votes for its majorities. In 1945, 1966, 1997 and 2007 it could have governed comfortably without any Scottish MPs, but in 2005, for example, its 66 seat majority relied on its 41 Scottish MPs. Do how might things play out this year?

Questions based on the video
1. How has Scottish politics evolved since Devolution?
2. Why has the SNP been successful in recent elections in Scotland?
3. What role did the independence referendum in 2014 play in shaping support for the SNP?
4. What factors have contributed to Labour's recent recovery in Scotland?
5. How have Scottish voters' opinions of their government and the Westminster government changed over time?
6. What challenges have the SNP faced recently, impacting their popularity?
7. Why is Scotland considered a key contest in the upcoming election?

Correct answers
1. Since Devolution, Scottish politics plays out in both the Parliament in Holyrood and in the Westminster Parliament where there are 59 Scottish MPs.
2. The SNP has been successful due to struggles faced by Labour across the UK and the strong support they gained from voters who supported Scottish independence after the 2014 referendum.
3. The independence referendum in 2014 led to a surge in support for the SNP among voters who had previously supported independence, shifting their allegiance away from other parties.
4. Labour's recent recovery in Scotland can be attributed to their improved performance nationwide and the SNP facing scandals and difficulties.
5. Initially, Scottish voters preferred their government (SNP) over the Westminster government, but by 2024, satisfaction with both governments has decreased significantly.
6. The SNP has faced challenges such as financial controversies and leadership changes, impacting their popularity among voters.
7. Scotland is a key contest in the upcoming election due to tight races, tactical voting around Independence issues, and the narrow lead that Labour holds in opinion polls.

More open-ended discussion questions

1. How has the Scottish National Party (SNP) managed to maintain support in Scotland for over a decade?
2. What role has the independence question played in the success of the SNP in Scotland?
3. Why has the Labour Party been struggling in recent elections in Scotland?
4. How have recent scandals and difficulties within the SNP impacted their popularity in Scotland?
5. Why is the upcoming election in Scotland considered to be on a knife edge?