Trading places

I have come across an interesting website that mixes Politics and markets.

On intrade.com you can buy or sell contracts on the basis of predictions on future events, with the price dictating what traders think the likely outcome will be.

At the moment Barack Obama has a price of 62.9 (all markets trade between 0 ($0.0) and 100 ($10).) which suggests that traders think he has a 62.9% chance of winning the presidential election.

I am not advocating that readers take a punt, but monitoring the ups and downs of candidates during the primaries they were pretty reliable indicators.

Intrade predict also that the Tories have a 70% chance of winning the next election. Only 70%!

Watch the YouTube clip above which explains how it works