Tory Crewe

Will the Crewe by-election be remembered as the day that David Cameron’s party proved they were ready to govern?

By-election blues

Bad news for Labour last night:

‘The Conservatives have achieved their first by-election gain in 26 years, taking Crewe and Nantwich from Labour.

Tory candidate Edward Timpson won 7,860 more votes than his Labour rival, overturning a 7,000 Labour majority at the general election - a 17.6% swing.

David Cameron said it was a “remarkable victory” and thousands of people had voted Conservative for the first time.

Labour deputy Harriet Harman said it was a “bad result” but attributed it to voters’ concerns about the economy.’

Source BBC web

How significant a swing was this result?

From Nick Robinson’s newslog:

‘Lab to Con by election swings

- Warwick and Leamington 1968 - 18.2%
- Brighton Pavillion 1969 - 17.9%
- Ashfield - 1977 - 20.8%
- Walsall North - 1976 - 17.3%

In Ilford North 1978, the last by-election gain from Labour to the Tories, the swing was 7%

The opposition parties will, on the other hand, point out that they’ve had much bigger swings in by-elections:

Con to Lib Dem by election swings
- Christchurch 1993 - 35%
- Newbury 1993 - 28%
- Ribble Valley 1991 - 25%

Con to Lab by election swings
- Dudley West 94 - 29%
- SE Staffs - 96 - 22%
- Mid Staffs 89 - 21%’

Can Labour recover from this in time for the next General Election? It is possible to argue that the election has taken place against a backdrop of economic problems, but no Prime Minister has ever been so personally unpopular as Brown is now.

Even some members of the Cabinet are reported to have said that a change of leadership might be required. Labour Party rules would seem to limit the chances of this happening, but many party leaders have gone without strict adherence to the complex rules of intra-party election, including a certain Tony Blair.