Thin and nasty

An aspect of the science of psephology I have hitherto been unfamiliar with is the salience attached to the body mass index of candidates. But according to a report in today’s paper, Barack Obama might be too fit to appeal to an obese nation

The Sunday Times report on that:

‘Last week The Wall Street Journal suggested that Obama might be too thin and too fit to appeal to voters who tend to like candidates with flaws that they can identify with. Several analysts noted that widely circulated pictures of a red-faced Bill Clinton staggering into McDonald’s after a short jog did the former president no harm at all; millions of Americans knew just how he felt.

Obama’s enthusiasm for exercise first raised eyebrows last month, when he stopped three times in one day for workouts at Chicago gyms, prompting an Associated Press reporter to wonder: “Sometimes it’s hard to tell if Barack Obama is running for president or Mr Universe.”

The notion that Obama is too thin to win was derided by many of his supporters, but the issue underlined a disturbing reality for the Democratic candidate.

Polls have consistently shown that McCain is beating him among significant groups of voters, notably working-class white males and older suburban women, who complain he appears elitist or out of touch with average Americans.

Obama now appears vulnerable to the kind of character assassination that helped to do in Senator John Kerry, the Democratic contender in 2004. Kerry was successfully depicted by Republicans as an effete, windsurfing, brie-eating, French-speaking fop.

While Obama’s world tour was undeniably a diplomatic and personal triumph, its main effect domestically was to spur McCain into a negative political onslaught.

The sour turn to the race raised the stakes for the next big announcements of the campaign: the vice-presidential choices. What should have been a straightforward selection for Obama, who was widely expected to name a safe but boring white man as his running mate, has been complicated by what is rapidly becoming his woman problem.

According to a recent Fox News survey, McCain is making significant inroads among women voters over 40, some of whom supported Hillary Clinton, whose admirers have all but given up hope that Obama might choose their idol as his running mate.

Two former Clinton aides last week closed down a Hillary-for-VP website called Voteboth.com. They were then stunned to learn that Obama was seriously considering two other women candidates: Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri.

McCain’s shortlist also includes two well known women: Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska and Carly Fiorina, former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, the computer firm.

Meanwhile, over in the Observer there is further comment on how the campaign has turned negative and interestingly John McCain’s team had planning to take this approach for some time.

‘McCain’s aggressive strategy is a deliberate and well-thought-out ploy. It was developed and implemented by a coterie of advisers brought in last month who are protégés of the Republican political guru Karl Rove. [Steve] Schmidt, who learnt his trade with Rove, heads the group and is now guiding the campaign.

The strategy is intended to turn McCain’s ailing presidential bid around and give it a firm focus: one mostly fixed on attacking Obama. Schmidt and others believe they can do to Obama what the Republicans did to John Kerry in 2004.’

This election was always likely to be a lot closer than the polls suggested up until this month, largely because Republicans have a habit of closing large poll leads on the Democrat rivals.

Often this is a result of more successful campaigning. Even if this is negative. As an example, Michael Dukakis had a double digit lead over George Bush Sr in 1988, only for this to be overturned after Bush went negative on Dukakis’s perceived weakness on crime. The pivotal moment is said to be the so called ‘Willie Horton incident’.

I include the attack ad above.

Also recommended for fans of Americana is the longish essay in the Sunday Times magazine on rednecks. Well worth a read.