The end of Ken

Why this blog writer and London resident is not surprised by polls indicating Boris Johnson is hot favourite to be his city’s next mayor

Landing in London (fortunately not at Heathrow) this afternoon I picked up a copy of the Evening Standard and was hardly surprised to read about another poll putting Boris well ahead in the race to be London Mayor.

See details of the poll here

Why the lack of shock? A number of factors have come into play in this, the third, election Ken Livingstone has contested for Mayor of London.

Unlike previous election cycles the national mood has shifted in favour of the Tories. Since the fiasco over the election that never was, the Labour Party has been on the back foot. And Ken has suffered as a result.

Second, Livingstone has been tarnished by a number of scandals in recent months that have severely damaged his image amongst Londoners. He has not actually been found guilty of anything. But in politics it is perception that counts. And despite what the Mighty Boosh say there is no smoke without fire.

Next is transport. I don’t have much time for those who want something for nothing (here I can think of those who ride the bendy buses when clearly they make no attempt to pay), but feel sympathy for those who feel that Ken promised significant improvements in the public transport system and have helped pay for it through higher fares without really seeing any changes. There is also something of a congestion charge (CC) backlash. Partly due to the unpopular extension into Kensington and Chelsea, partly due to reasons that chime with sentiments in regard to the tube etc. London traffic speeds are more or less back to where they were pre-CC, but drivers are being asked to pay for the privilege.

The fourth reason is Boris himself. The very fact that Boris is the only other active politician in the country referred to by his first name brings Ken (the other one who shares this affliction) into contact with a genuine ‘big beast’. The popularity and name recognition of Boris in an election that focuses on personalities in a quasi-American presidential way in way means Ken is in a hall of mirrors that neutralises his strong points.

Lastly, many London voters feel it is time for a change – a point highlighted in an article on the contest by Tony Travers.

Ken is a maverick who, it is broadly felt, has served the interests of Londoners reasonably well, but has not made a substantial difference to their lives and it is time to shake things up a bit.

Which of these factors has more salience, I don’t know. But in combination they are likely to deliver Ken a knockout blow. What the impact Boris’s likely victory will have on the national scene is a story that will be fascinating as it unfolds.

Much of this chimes with the findings of a detailed poll in the Guardian But this was taken before BBC London revealed details of Ken’s family life.