Scorecard on Rishi and voting behaviour

A number of media sources have produced scorecards on the progress being made by Rishi Sunak and his five pledges.

These features made me think about what the implications would be in terms of voting behaviour.

As we know, the modern electorate are more inclined to cast their vote according the rational choice model. The twin sociological and psychological anchors of class and partisan alignment still heavily shape decisions by voters at the polls, but they don't decide the outcome. It is decisions by the vital swing voters that ultimately determine what the colour of the door at Number 10 will be painted.

As such, it is the 3Ps that matter: past performance, the party leader, and future policies. (We could add a fourth 'P' here for party unity). And so, as things stand, it doesn't look too good for Rishi's government.

The commitments by Sunak as PM were made in January 2023, and the i rated his chances of meeting them before the end of the year as follows:

Halving inflation: 2/5

Growing the economy: 3/5

Reducing debt: 2/5

Tackling the NHS backlog: 1/5

Stopping the boats: 1/5

See the full article here.

For further reading, links to more sources...

The Evening Standard

BBC News online

The New Statesman