Raising the bar?

Third parties in the USA

Historically third parties have not done well at the ballot box in the USA. Looking at Congress, there is only one true independent. No third party candidate has taken the White House since Lincoln. Even at sub-national level, 3Ps do badly: only around 20 of the roughly 8,000 state legislators come from outside the Democrat or Republican parties.

Reasons for the two party hegemony in the USA are well worn: the electoral college; money; ballot access; lack of ideological space, etc.

But that does not mean that they can’t have an impact. Perot in 1992 is the most successful 3P presidential candidate in recent years, taking just under 20% of the vote. True, he failed to pick up any ECVs, but he did help shape the policy agenda in terms of welfare reform and government spending.

Nader in 2000 could well have cost Gore the elections by taking votes from the Democrat candidate in Florida.

Such could be the impact of a new entrant in the 2008 race, Bob Barr.

According to the Post:

“Former Republican Rep. Bob Barr launched a Libertarian Party presidential bid Monday, saying voters are hungry for an alternative to the status quo who would dramatically cut the federal government.

His candidacy throws a wild card into the White House race that many believe could peel away votes from Republican Sen. John McCain given the candidates’ similar positions on fiscal policy.”

With polls indicating that the 2008 contest this autumn is likely to be as close as the previous two elections, McCain is unlikely to welcome this news.