Presidential election ‘Nostradamus’ on 2024

Professor Alan Lichtman explain how his system works and potential implications for this November.

Some great insights here. Like how Lichtman completely dismisses the significance of the running mate.

Well worth a watch.

Some warm up questions…

1. How accurate do you think historical data is in predicting future events like presidential elections?
2. Do you believe that the keys to the White House formula is a reliable method for predicting election outcomes?
3. What impact do you think Vice President Kamala Harris entering the race has on the overall election dynamics?
4. How important do you think it is for political parties to unite around a candidate in order to secure victory in an election?
5. Do you think the choice of a running mate for a presidential candidate significantly influences the election outcome?

Questions based on the clip

1. How does Professor Alan Lichtman predict presidential elections, and what is the basis of his formula?

2. What impact did Vice President Kamala Harris entering the race have on the keys to the White House formula when it was a Biden-Trump matchup?

3. How have recent cataclysmic events affected the keys to the White House according to Professor Lichtman?

4. Despite losing one key, why does Professor Lichtman still believe it looks positive for the Democrats in the upcoming election?

5. Which keys have the Democrats lost so far, and how many more would need to fall to predict their defeat?

6. Is there a candidate on Kamala Harris's shortlist for running mate that could potentially help her pick up extra keys, according to Professor Lichtman?

7. When will Professor Lichtman make his prediction for this year's election, and why has he chosen that timing?

Correct answers

1. Professor Alan Lichtman predicts presidential elections using 13 true or false questions known as the "keys to the White House," which assess the strength and performance of the White House Party.

2. Vice President Kamala Harris entering the race impacted the formula by preserving the no primary contest key for the Democrats and making RFK Jr a less attractive alternative, thus shifting the polls in their favor.

3. Recent cataclysmic events have had an important but mixed impact on the keys to the White House, with Joe Biden dropping out causing the Democrats to lose the incumbency key.

4. Despite losing the incumbency key, Professor Lichtman believes it still looks positive for the Democrats due to the unity around Kamala Harris and the reduced likelihood of widespread social unrest erupting.

5. The Democrats have lost the incumbency key, and three more keys (mandate, incumbent charisma, third party) would need to fall to predict their defeat in November.

6. There is no vice presidential key, and recent evidence shows that vice presidential picks do not significantly affect the outcome of elections, as seen in past examples like George HW Bush picking Dan Quayle in 1988.

7. Professor Lichtman will make his prediction for this year's election right after the Democratic Convention, which ends on August 22nd.