Obamapectations

It goes without saying that Obama faces the biggest challenges of a new occupant of the White House in over half a century, and that expectations undoubtedly exceed these. But how quickly will his star fade? Cynical? Not really. It was Enoch Powell who was correct in saying that all political careers end in failure. And well before that the honeymoon period becomes a distant memory. For this reason, the Economist ran this interesting feature (in late January, but the blog was, alas, slow to advertse it):

’ WEEK is a long time in politics. By that theory a year is an aeon, so judging the popularity of Barack Obama 12 months hence is a tricky task. Though he entered office last week with pre-inauguration approval ratings of over 80%, the highest for 30 years, sustaining those dizzy heights will be a lot harder. The odds offered on his job rating in January 2010 by Paddy Power, a bookmaker, reflect this. An approval rating of between 50% and 60% is the favourite, at 7/4, whereas the odds offered on maintaining his pre-inauguration rating of between 80% and 90% is 10/1.’

Is it also cynical of me to say that 3/1 looks a good price?