New Labour’s legacy: the path to an independent Scotland?

Tristam Hunt in today’s Guardian paints a picture which suggests that the end of the Union is in sight

When historians look back on what New Labour’s major achievement was it could be long term stability in Northern Ireland or the introduction of a new rights based culture alongside a more activist judiciary. Or it could be that Tony Blair as PM, via the establishment of a devolved Scottish Parliament, was responsible for paving the way to the break up of Britain.

This is not as fantastical an idea as it may seem. Hunt points out that:

‘…the awful truth is that the tide of history is flowing in the other direction. From Slovakia to Kosovo to the nation formerly known as Belgium, the trend is for smaller, ethnically codified national entities at the expense of broader civic federations.’

Has devolution strengthened or weakened the possibility that Scotland will again become an independent nation?

‘Whether or not Labour scrapes home in tomorrow’s Glasgow East byelection, there are some more fundamental forces affecting its future north of the border. For rather than stopping nationalism dead in its tracks, the Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly have only intensified cross-party calls for the Balkanisation of Britain. And as the unforgiving logic of devolution plays itself out, it is Labour’s political prospects that are intimately and precariously tied to the health of the union.

Over the past decade, no one has understood this conundrum more acutely than Gordon Brown…Brown has surely been right to champion a common British identity as well as highlight the looming political threat to the union. For here’s the nightmare scenario: a Scottish National party administration holds on to Holyrood and seeks to move towards a referendum on independence. Meanwhile, a Tory government in Westminster, elected into office without a single Scottish seat, sees no reason why it should fight to preserve a system that delivers 39 Scottish Labour MPs to the House of Commons. Post-2010, the two governing parties in Edinburgh and London look to their own electoral interests and signal the evisceration of the union.

Officially, of course, David Cameron wants no such thing. He has described himself as a “very convinced unionist”, far happier to settle for an imperfect union than none at all. But there are other signs from the Cameron camp. He himself has outlined how a future, sovereign Scotland could be a “successful, independent country” akin to Finland, Sweden and Norway.’

Read the article in full here, it is a great piece for class discussion.