More conflict in the pipeline?

According to a feature in the T2 section of today’s Times, key to understanding the conflict in the caucuses is the existence of 155 miles of pipeline snaking through Georgia. The authors argue that the conflict between Russia and its neighbour is not solely due to oil (true also of America’s invasion or Iraq, remember), but the geo-political relationships in the region are heavily influenced by black gold

Ben Macintyre writes:

‘The pipeline meets just 1 per cent of the global demand for oil, but it carries enormous political significance. For Georgia, it represents independence from Russian hegemony, a physical, political and economic link to Europe that is outside Moscow’s control. For the West, the pipe is a small but crucial counterbalance to our growing dependence on Russian oil and gas. For Moscow, the pipe represents part of a systematic attempt to reduce Russian influence in the Caucasus, a thorn in the paw of the bear.

The pipe runs just 35 miles south of South Ossetia: by stamping its military authority on Georgia, Russia is simultaneously reasserting its control over the region and, by implication, the pipeline.’

Robin Pagnamenta adds:

‘With the depletion of reserves from the North Sea, oil from the Caspian region is of growing importance to Europe. As North Sea oil declines, high-quality crude from Azerbaijan is helping to take up the slack - and the BTC is likely to become even more important as the taps are opened on the vast new oilfields of Central Asia.

When it was discovered in 2000, Kazakhstan’s Kashagan oilfield was the largest found since the 1960s. It has not yet entered commercial production - but when it does, the BTC will be its route to market. Understandably, Russia wants control over these reserves, which are of growing strategic importance to global energy supplies.

While oil prices tend to be influenced by shorter-term factors, the prospect of direct Russian control of the BTC pipeline would be unwelcome in the West, bolstering the Kremlin’s dominance over our energy future. This is one key reason why the current conflict is raising hackles in the West.’