Larry Sabato

I attended an absolutely excellent lecture last night by Larry Sabato, Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.

At a packed British Library, Dr Sabato delivered the Fourteenth Annual Douglas W. Bryant Lecture “Marathon: Looking back at the historic U.S. election of 2008”. I’m not going to provide an overview of the lecture contents since much of it will be covered in a new book: “The Year of Obama: How Barck Obama Won the White House” due for publication later this month.

A short excerpt is contained on Dr Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” website:

“Elections are often over-analyzed, and perhaps we have just committed that venial sin here on The Crystal Ball website. The welter of data and circumstance can overwhelm students of history, when the simple, straight-forward explanations are often the most compelling.

The truth is this: Any mainstream Democratic candidate was destined to win in 2008, when the age-old slogan, “It’s Time for a Change,” had powerful new meaning. The electoral conditions—the fundamentals I often call “the north stars of politics”—could not have been more clear or bright in the sky. The north stars that applied to the 2008 contest were presidential popularity, economic conditions, and war and peace.”

The website is well worth checking out as a resource on US voting behaviour.