Labour: things can only get worse?

In 1997 New Labour romped to power with D:Ream’s “Things can only get better” acting as their election soundtrack. Looking forward to the next general election, it is hard for the party to be as optimistic

The Evening Standard claim that ten junior ministers are ready to quit in order to force Gordon Brown to resign. Many within the Labour camp fear that the party faces meltdown at the next election unless a new leader is found. Indeed there are strong rumours that both David Miliband and Harriet Harman are preparing bids. But according to a poll in the Times, a change of leadership would do little to restore the party’s fortunes.

‘Voters are increasingly writing off Labour as fewer people believe that a change of leader or policy would help the party to win the next general election.
A Populus poll for The Times, undertaken over the weekend after Labour’s defeat in Glasgow East, suggests that its dramatic slide in popularity is being driven by a collapse in economic confidence.

Labour is on 27 per cent, down one point on the last Populus poll three weeks ago, and about the level it has been for the past three months. This is the lowest since the early 1980s
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The Conservatives are on 43 per cent — up two points — with the Liberal Democrats down one point at 18 per cent. Other parties are unchanged on 12 per cent.’

Peter Riddell goes on to say:

‘Labour MPs are right to be gloomy. Not only is their current position awful but there does not appear to be any plausible way out: neither dumping Gordon Brown nor changing policies.

Labour’s only, very slim, hope is that the economic downturn proves to be both shallow and over quickly…The grimmest message comes in questions about what would make Labour more likely to win the next election. Not, apparently, a big Cabinet reshuffle by Mr Brown, while the number thinking that significant policy changes would help has fallen sharply since May. Moreover, the proportion believing that getting rid of Mr Brown would improve Labour’s chances has barely changed since May. Mr Brown may go but the poll suggests that this is far from being a solution for a party that has been largely written off by the electorate.’

Labour, it seems, are doomed if they do, and doomed if they don’t. The party is in a deep trough, and parallels with the fag end days of the Major government are plain to see. If there is no leadership challenge, rumblings of potential bids will continue. If there is a successful bid then Labour will have its second unelected Prime Minister. Either way the party will look split, just as the Tories did in 1997. And disunity is one factor that encourages the electorate to punish parties more.

Whatever story unravels over the coming months, only an economic miracle will save Labour from a slaughtering at the next election.