Keir Starmer: the party leader and factors affecting voting behaviour

Many people currently question what the Labour leader stands for

I've written on this site many times before that the modern electorate, as probably all Politics students are aware, are inclined to cast their vote according the rational choice model. The twin anchors of partisan and class alignment still heavily shape decisions by voters at the polls, but they don't decide the outcome. It is decisions by the vital swing voters that ultimately determine what the colour of the door at Number 10 will be painted.

As such, it is the 3Ps that matter: past performance, the party leader, and future policies. (We could add a fourth 'P' here for party unity).

With regards to Keir Starmer's role, the broad consensus is that party leaders play an important role in determining voting intentions in elections. For instance, the well known psephologist David Denver has argued that there is a causal link between a party's performance in the polls and the relative popularity of the respective party leader.

Many people currently question what the Labour leader stands for. For instance, Matthew d'Ancona in his column in the Evening Standard wrote:

"Even if he were to resign today, Starmer could claim to have been one of Labour’s most successful leaders. In less than four years, he has taken the party from the electoral abyss in which it was left by Jeremy Corbyn to the brink of power. But if he is indeed to become its seventh prime minister, he owes the electorate a clearer sense of how, precisely, he proposes to be simultaneously cautious and radical."

It is often said that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. And with the current government looking tired and seemingly bereft of ideas, alongside there being a sense among the electorate that it is time for a change, it looks like Starmer is being cautious and playing a waiting game.

But many voters I talk to want to more about what a Labour government would look like, and what policies it would enact to tackle an economy that has been, according to a recent report, stagnant for over 10 years. At the report's launch, Starmer said any future Labour government wouldn't "quickly turn on the spending taps". Probably not what those who have suffered a fall in living standards want to hear. As a US campaign adviser to Bill Clinton once said, "It's the economy, stupid."

There is a related video clip below...

Suggested questions on the video

1. What is the current economic situation in Ebbw Vale?

2. How does the economic decline in Ebbw Vale reflect the overall economic decline in Britain?

3. According to Kier Starmer, what is the state of the British economy?

4. Why did Kier Starmer's plan to revive the economy not include any new money?

5. What criticism did Kier Starmer face for praising Margaret Thatcher?

6. How does the combination of low growth and high inequality affect lower middle-income households?

7. What does the Resolution Foundation highlight about British inequality?

8. What challenges do people in Blaenau Gwent face in terms of employment and training opportunities?

9. How do the transport links in The Valleys affect people's ability to work?

10. Why is it difficult to make big changes to spending in the British economy?

Possible answers

1. Ebbw Vale is one of the most impoverished areas in Europe with low income per head and a high percentage of people living on welfare.

2. The economic decline in Ebbw Vale reflects the relative economic decline of Britain as a whole.

3. Kier Starmer believes that the British economy is in a hole and worse than even after the financial crisis.

4. Kier Starmer's plan focused on wealth creation and private enterprise without including any new money.

5. Kier Starmer faced criticism for praising Margaret Thatcher and her impact on British entrepreneurialism.

6. The combination of low growth and high inequality negatively affects lower middle-income households.

7. The Resolution Foundation highlights the deep splits in British inequality between The Haves and the Have Nots.

8. People in Blaenau Gwent face challenges in finding employment and training opportunities due to limited options and difficult transport links.

9. The transport links in The Valleys make it time-consuming and difficult for people to commute to work.

10. Making big changes to spending in the British economy is challenging due to the upcoming election and the reluctance to implement significant changes without electoral support.