In the News

Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States

Mike McCartney

9th September 2024

So says US Historian Professor Allan Lichtman

I've mentioned his powers of prediction before on this site.

Check out the video...

Low stakes question based on the video

Questions:
1. What is the basis of Allan Lichtman's model for predicting presidential elections?
2. How many keys does Allan Lichtman's model rely on, and what do they primarily focus on?
3. Why did Allan Lichtman predict that Donald Trump would win in 2016?
4. How accurate has Allan Licthman been with his presidential predictions in recent years?
5. What are some examples of the keys used by Allan Lichtman to predict election outcomes?
6. How does Allan Lichtman determine whether a key is true or false in his model?
7. Can you explain how the performance of the White House Party impacts Allan Lichtman's prediction model?

Correct answers:

1. Allan Lichtman's model for predicting presidential elections is based on 13 keys developed in 1981 with his geophysicist friend.
2. Allan Lichtman's model relies on 13 keys that primarily focus on the strength and performance of The White House Party, rather than the candidates themselves.
3. Allan Lichtman predicted that Donald Trump would win in 2016 because his model indicated that the keys were in favor of Trump.
4. Allan Lichtman has been highly accurate with his presidential predictions in recent years, correctly predicting both Trump's victory in 2016 and Biden's win in 2020.
5. Examples of keys used by Allan Lichtman include factors such as House Seat gains, incumbency, economic growth, major policy changes, and social unrest during the term.
6. Allan Lichtman determines whether a key is true or false based on specific criteria related to each key, such as House Seat gains, economic indicators, and policy changes.
7. The performance of the White House Party, including factors like House Seat gains, economic growth, policy changes, and social unrest, directly impacts Allan Lichtman's prediction model for determining the next president of the United States.

Mike McCartney

Mike is an experienced A-Level Politics teacher, author and examiner.

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