Joe Sixpack

In an election as close as this, character could prove decisive

One of the younger boys in my school expressed his disappointment to me the other day about our trip to the US in October only being open to the 6th Form. I said that he would have the chance in a few years, and he replied: “Yes, but there’s not going to be another election like this one.” This was a sentiment which echoed what esteemed US journalist , David Broder, wrote in one of his columns in the Washington Post:

‘This has been—and remains—the election of a lifetime.’

He explains the topography of the election thus:

‘What we know is that the American people take the choice of a new president very seriously—especially when their nation is at war and the economy is behaving in a way that causes real concern.

Relatively few Americans have ever cast a ballot for either McCain or Obama. McCain, after two presidential campaigns and a long career in Congress, is comparatively familiar. But Obama came onto the public’s radar screen only this year, and Biden and Palin are still strangers to most of their fellow citizens.
The curiosity about all four is intense, which means that the learning process may go relatively quickly. But because voters know that they have until Nov. 4 to figure out their choice, those who are less partisan and more independent will take their time.

They will search carefully for clues that can give them confidence that they are making the right choice. Those clues may come in displays of character, in policy promises or in endorsements by trusted sources. Informal conversations among friends and family will be as important as TV ads or the candidates’ speeches.

Multiply these factors by the political geography of this 51-part election, with nearly a dozen plausible tossup states, and the uncertainty of the outcome is overwhelming. We may go well into October and not know who will be succeeding George W. Bush.’

The election will be decided by how the competing pressures play out. The demographic status of the swing states, the economy, Iraq, voter turnout, etc, etc. But ultimately it could be a question of character. Since presidential elections are about individuals in a way that our general elections are not, who gets to be pres could come down to who swing voters would most like to have a beer with. In 2000, for instance, Gore outscored Bush on almost every issue in the polls. Yet, Bush was much viewed as much more of a regular guy than Gore – who was seen as a bit wooden.

This scenario was replayed in 2004, when economic performance and the situation in Iraq should have played into John Kerry’s hands. But, alas, he turned off Joe Sixpack because he could speak French. Oh, how awful to have a man in the White House who is fluent in the language of the cheese lovers.

You can see where this is heading. One of Obama’s fundamental problems is that he speaks in long sentences, and talks about grand themes. In short, he comes across as a bit too intelligent. He doesn’t have the down to earth folksy charm of Bush. And it’s fair to say that McCain, with his privileged upbringing, and multiple homes, is not the regular guy that he pretends to be. But he does a better job of it than Obama.

I’m not saying that the fundamentals don’t matter, but when the dynamics cancel each other out, character could be decisive.