Have post 1997 constitutional reforms been a success?

Following the stunning victory in the Scottish elections by Alex Salmond’s SNP, much has been made about whether we are now closer to the break up of Britain. This debate in exam terms is subsumed into a wider debate about constitutional reform and whether (a) it has been a success (b) it has gone far enough.

In the latest edition of the exambuster I stripped out most of the lengthy analysis of devolution since it was rendered superfluous by new style questions on Edexcel Unit 2. But here is a snippet on the Scottish devolution debate.

What has been the impact of Scottish devolution?

The following can be viewed as positive outcomes of devolution and support the arguments of those in favour.

• Despite increases in support for the nationalists at the polls in successive elections there has been no discernible upsurge in nationalism within the devolved regions as some fierce anti-devolutionists argued. The switch away from Labour north of the border reflected dissatisfaction with the party in Scotland as an effective and cohesive force rather than an attraction to the nationalist cause. Support for independence in Scotland rose slightly in the early devolution years then fell below the 1999 peak, with roughly a quarter of the population remaining in favour. Much has been made of occasional opinion polls that indicate a majority of support for Scottish independence but when the Scottish people are asked if they want Scotland to exit the Union, only a quarter express support. It is one thing for a teenager to demand more freedom from their parents, but leaving home is quite another. Another way of looking at it is to consider that pretty much the only people who foresee an independent Scotland are members of the SNP.

• The following can be viewed as negative outcomes of devolution and support the arguments of those against.

Questions still remain about whether devolution will lead to the break-up of Britain.

• A poll for the Scotland on Sunday newspaper at one time revealed that a majority of Scots were in favour of independence. This was not viewed as novel or particularly startling, but a another poll in The Sunday Telegraph suggested that a majority of the English, 59%, said it was time to let Scotland go it alone. Furthermore, a startling 68% of the English people polled said they wanted their own parliament. This has alarmed many unionists who see it as confirming many of their worst fears about the full ramifications of Labour’s delivery of a Scottish Parliament. As the headline in the paper stated: ‘Tony Blair’s lasting legacy could be the end of the Union.’ Would this fierce debate in the national media on the 300th anniversary of the Act of Union between Scotland and England have occurred if devolution had not taken place?

• Critics argue that since the SNP’s victories in May 2007 and 2011, Alex Salmond – by staking a claim to North Sea Oil, for instance – appears determined to drive a wedge between the English and Scottish border. With a Tory PM and a nationalist First Minister, this wedge is only likely to be driven further into the Scots/English border.

• Tory MPs in England (even if they do include Scots such as Malcolm Rifkind) are doing their best to aid in delivering the nationalist’s ultimate goal by continuing to call for votes in the Commons on English matters by English only MPs.

There’s also some excellent analysis on the debate by John Curtice in the Guardian here.