Goodbye Gordon?

The Sun called it a ‘Glasgow kiss’ for Gordon Brown, BBC news describe it as one of the most spectacular in recent history

Yes, the Glasgow East by-election victory by the SNP in a seat held by Labour for 60 years is a spectacular blow for the Prime Minister and means that he has suffered three successive by-election defeats.

Gordon Brown must have sensed that his party would do badly since he set the election date for two days after Parliament had started its summer break. That way if Labour performed poorly then MPs wouldn’t be circling the House of Commons or meeting in the many bars and restaurants muttering about seeking a new leader. But would Brown really have thought that it would be this bad?

According to the BBC: ‘John Mason, the SNP’s winning candidate in Glasgow East, said: “Three weeks ago the SNP predicted a political earthquake.
“This SNP victory is not just a political earthquake; it is off the Richter scale. It is an epic win and the tremors will be felt all the way to Downing Street.”’

And I don’t think that is hyperbole. It is difficult to see how the government can turn things round before the next general election. The economy is likely to get worse before it gets better. In particular it is probable that the housing slide will continue. Pressure will remain on food prices. This combination of factors will undoubtedly help maintain the perception that Labour are unable to do anything positive. At the moment the public are only receptive to bad news – tell people that inflation is not much higher than official figures and you’ll be met with a shake of the head. Or suggest that crime is falling, whether measured by the police count or the British Crime Survey and people will say that the opposite is true.

Labour’s performance at the polls closely mirrors how the Tories fared under Major in the 1990s. Brown may have rejected David Cameron’s calls for an early election, but it seems that Brown is merely delaying the inevitable. One party leader may have lost their bike recently, but they are bound to make up for it by winning something far more important.