Good opinion polls article

Opinion polls, as part of the effect of the media, are on the A Level course

And this recent article is a good way in to cover issues such as reliability, boomerang and bandwagon effects, and whether or not they are good for democracy.

Some questions

1. Why does the passage suggest the polling industry has not changed its data collection methods since 2019?
A. The industry believes the 2019 methods were accurate and effective.
B. The industry is reluctant to adopt new data collection techniques.
C. The industry wants to ensure consistency in its polling approach.
D. The industry has not had the resources to update its data collection methods.

2. According to the passage, what is the key challenge posed by the high proportion of undecided voters who previously voted Conservative?
A. It makes it difficult to accurately predict the final vote share for the Conservative party.
B. It suggests the Conservative voters are less likely to turn out and vote.
C. It indicates the Conservative party has lost the support of its core voters.
D. It means the polling companies will have to exclude a large number of respondents when calculating the final results.

3. What does the passage suggest about the impact of the polling industry's approach to allocating "don't know" responses?
A. The approach tends to overestimate the Conservative party's final vote share.
B. The approach tends to underestimate the Conservative party's final vote share.
C. The approach has no significant impact on the final vote share predictions.
D. The passage does not provide enough information to determine the impact of the allocation approach.

4. Which of the following best describes the passage's perspective on the reliability of the current polling data?
A. The passage expresses confidence that the polls are accurately reflecting the current state of the election.
B. The passage suggests the polls may be underestimating the Conservative party's support.
C. The passage raises doubts about the ability of the polls to accurately predict the election outcome.
D. The passage argues that the polling industry has not learned from its past mistakes.

5. What does the passage suggest is the main reason for the differences between polling companies' results?
A. The companies are using different methodologies to allocate undecided voters.
B. The companies are targeting different demographic groups in their sampling.
C. The companies are applying different weighting factors to their data.
D. The passage does not provide a clear explanation for the differences between polling companies.

6. According to the passage, how have the polling industry's efforts to address past polling misses impacted the current election predictions?
A. The industry's efforts have led to more accurate and consistent polling results.
B. The industry's efforts have introduced new uncertainties and challenges in interpreting the polling data.
C. The industry's efforts have had little impact on the reliability of the current polling predictions.
D. The passage does not provide enough information to assess the impact of the industry's efforts.

7. What is the primary reason the passage suggests the polls may still be "wrong" in this election, despite the industry's efforts to address past issues?
A. The passage does not provide a clear reason to expect the polls to be "wrong" in this election.
B. The passage suggests the Conservative party's support may be underestimated due to the "shy Tory" effect.
C. The passage indicates that a higher-than-usual proportion of undecided Conservative voters could skew the results.
D. The passage expresses concern that the polling industry has not learned from its past mistakes.

Correct answers:

1. C
2. A
3. A
4. C
5. A
6. B
7. C

More open-ended discussion based activities

1. Divide the students into small groups and ask them to discuss their experiences of political polling and elections. Encourage them to share any insights or concerns they have about the accuracy of poll predictions.

2. Provide the students with a selection of newspaper headlines and articles about past election polls and outcomes. Ask them to analyse the language used and identify any rhetoric devices or biases that may have influenced the reporting. Discuss how these factors could impact the public's perception of poll results.

3. Present the students with a hypothetical scenario where a political party is trailing in the polls but ultimately wins the election. Ask them to brainstorm possible reasons for this outcome, such as the "shy voter" effect or methodological issues with the polling data. Encourage them to consider the implications of such a scenario for democratic processes.