Global Issues: Terrorism: Osama Bin Laden: Gone but not forgotten

The killing of Osama Bin Laden in Abbotabad in Pakistan, the world’s most wanted man although maybe not Pakistan’s, in a raid by US Special Forces removes one of the most potent symbols of non-state terrorism in the modern era. However, as a blow against what Al-Qaeda represented, the killing of its putative leader almost certainly carries more symbolic, rather than practical, value. Thus questions about his precise legacy now remain. Here are a few select pieces of analysis on the issue which should be of use to Global Issues students:

1. Paul Cornish of Chatham House gives some expert comment arguing that Osama Bin Laden may be gone but is not forgotten. He writes that it would be a mistake to assume that Osama bin Laden’s death means the end of al-Qaeda and the end of the jihad; as if bin Laden, al-Qaeda and jihad are not just closely connected but are three inter-dependent pillars. Osama bin Laden created a franchise for international terror that is designed to survive without him. See below for full comment.

2. Dr Maha Azzam also of Chatham House also looks at his legacy and asserts: “Whether al-Qaeda’s real strength was exaggerated by the United States and its allies or not, its defeat became the focus of US policy in Afghanistan and to some extent in Iraq in retaliation for 9/11 and gave rise to an era where the ‘War on Terror’ became the focus for security services the world over. Al-Qaeda’s declared war on the US and its allies (executed through terrorist attacks among other places, in Bali, Madrid, London, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, as well as in Iraq) cost the lives of thousands, including Muslims, and failed to win hearts and minds in the Muslim street at large.” The killing of Osama bin Laden is a major blow to al-Qaeda, ‘a movement that laid a great deal of emphasis on Osama bin Laden as a key figure in its recruitment of people’, says Maha Azzam. On Channel 4, she outlines what next for a ‘demoralized’ al-Qaeda. Click here for more.

3. The BBC has an ‘Obituary’ by John Simpson, which includes some succint analysis from Frank Gardner. Also look at Osama’s death: What next for al-Qaeda? which has useful video clips.

4. Osama bin Laden is survived by other terrorist leaders. Here are profiles of the top 10 at large.

Osama bin Laden: Gone but not Forgotten
by Dr Paul Cornish, Head, International Security Programme and Carrington Professor of International Security
In conception and execution, the capture and killing of Osama bin Laden was an extraordinary operation.

The raid by special forces took just minutes to achieve their objective; killing the United States’ arch adversary and seizing his body. Rather than launch another remotely controlled drone attack, the commitment of ‘boots on the ground’ made it possible to guarantee mission success and to minimise so-called ‘collateral damage’ to civilians and bystanders. In short, the operation demanded timely intelligence, precise targeting and personal courage; while US intelligence services and armed forces have these three qualities in abundance, allies and adversaries alike will have been impressed to see them combined with such ruthless effectiveness.

It has often been said in Iraq and Afghanistan that while Western forces have expensive wrist watches their opponents have plenty of time. But this operation was months, if not years in the making; proving that the United States has not, after all, forgotten the meaning of strategic patience.

But there are a number of awkward questions to be asked. Why was bin Laden’s safe house just a stone’s throw from a Pakistani military establishment and just 60 miles from Islamabad? Did the Pakistani intelligence and military establishment connive in hiding and protecting bin Laden? Or, conversely, did they assist in the raid in some way? Either way, the implications will be significant in Pakistan and regionally.

Bin Laden made his ‘declaration of war’ against the United States as long ago as 1996; why has it taken the United States so long to track him down? And finally, while this was a presidentially authorised ‘kill operation’, some will ask whether it would have been preferable to bring him to trial for his crimes.

But so what? The world’s most notorious mass murderer is dead. This is good news for the United States and its allies - and could be the defining moment of what will prove to be a two-term presidency for Barack Obama. It is good news of sorts for the families of his victims, albeit a poignant reminder of the tragedy that overtook so many on 9/11, on 7/7 and on other occasions. It is good news for mainstream Muslims, oppressed by the association made by bin Laden between their faith and the wave of international terrorism he inspired.

Bin Laden’s death will also be a blow to morale among his followers and within al-Qaeda, and the manner of his death might discourage others from stepping too readily into his leadership role. And finally, bin Laden’s death might also dilute some of the potency of the jihadi brand in the Middle East and North Africa, giving countries such as Tunisia, Egypt and Libya a little more breathing space as they seek to find their own way.

But it’s not over yet. In the short term there could be reprisal attacks. Far from being forgotten, bin Laden will be remembered very intensely and very angrily for months to come. His followers will be determined to show that the jihad is not over, just as the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan will be keen to show that their insurgency is not over either.

For the longer term, it would be a mistake to assume that bin Laden’s death means both the end of al-Qaeda and the end of the jihad; as if bin Laden, al-Qaeda and jihad are not just closely connected but are three, structurally inter-dependent pillars. It is widely understood that bin Laden created a franchise for international terror that is designed to survive without him. For his followers, and for others in the future who subscribe to the myth, bin Laden will be seen to have died like a warrior, if not a martyr. As the man who inspired and symbolised jihad against the United States and its allies, bin Laden will continue to inspire for decades to come.