Global Issues: Conflict: Afghanistan - COIN strategy - Doomed to Failure?

“Before the British came, everyone was happy they were coming to bring security and reconstruction, but all the British brought was chaos” “The Helmand people just want peace, not reconstruction even, just peace. But if NATO sent another 100,000 troops to Helmand without good government…..they won’t be able to bring security”Haji Mahboob Khan; Senator from Garmser District Helmand; From The Economist 11-17 July 2009

The above quotes highlight the key problems which need to addressed in mounting ‘counter insurgency’ [COIN] strategy in Afghanistan and also serve to show where things have gone wrong. Can things be ‘fixed’ - that is another question altogether. On 28 January, foreign ministers from around the world gathered in London for a conference on Afghanistan. The aim was to mobilise international efforts behind a plan for how to deploy military and civilian resources on the ground. The London conference was chaired by the Foreign Secretary, David Miliband. In an article which coincided with the summit entitled; “The Danger is being outgoverned, rather than outgunned!” he asserted that: “The implications for how we succeed are clear: military and development resources are critical, but they need to be channelled towards a clear political strategy aimed at maintaining the support of the Afghan people, dividing the insurgency and building regional co-operation.”

Here are two other recent articles analyzing the counter-insurgency tactics being adopted in the latest attempt to defeat the Taliban:

1. Afghanistan: Doomed to Failure?

There is a critical article on ‘counter insurgency’ in Afghanistan by Mehdi Hasan of the Newstatesman entitled: ‘Two sides of the Coin’:
”Strategy without tactics is the slow road to victory,” wrote Sun Tzu in The Art of War, “but tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” Stanley McChrystal, the top US military commander in Afghanistan, would do well to heed the words of the ancient Chinese general.”

In Chatham Houses January edition of World Today in ‘Afghanistan: Perfect Paralysis’ Prem Shankar Jha argues:
“Bringing the troops home requires a political solution in Afghanistan. A concern no doubt at the London conference this month.The Taliban could be persuaded to talk and join an inclusive government, but only if NATO and the United States agree to a ceasefire and then to withdraw. A new group of regional powers including India, Iran and Turkey could make this possible.”