Do the Democrats understand the South?

There is a fascinating interview with a Democrat party strategist in today’s Times. Dave “Mudcat” (yes, really) Saunders argues that Barack Obama will lose heavily in the South and rural areas unless he tries to connect with redneck concerns.

History and votes

1865

After the American Civil War, Democrats dominated the 11 Southern, former Confederate states because of their opposition to Lincoln’s Republican Party, which had led the Northern states

1880-1960

The Southern states, known as the “Solid South”, voted Democrat in every US election, with the exception of 1928

1960s

The Democrats’ hold on the South slipped, partly because of the Civil Rights Acts of 1964 and Voting Rights Act of 1965, which outlawed segregation, creating a sense of betrayal among Southerners

Republicans adopted a “Southern strategy” of fielding candidates that would appeal to the states’ conservative sensibilities

1980-2004

The Republican presidential nominee has averaged 54 per cent of the popular vote in the South, and the Democratic nominee only 42 per cent

‘The sea of shining, hope-filled faces that routinely flood Barack Obama’s rallies would be an alien environment for the grizzled features and tobacco-stained temperament of Dave “Mudcat” Saunders.

“The Democrats talk of tolerance, but in reality the only tolerance they ever exhibit is for their own intellectual arrogance — and they don’t have tolerance for my culture,” says Mudcat. “They think we’re a bunch of hillbilly heathens who go out and burn crosses and do crazy bullshit.

“They don’t give a f*** if we’re with them or not, because it doesn’t matter. The f***ing Republicans have stolen the individual liberties thing and that’s why the gun thing is such a big deal.”

He is scathing about the reliance on registering new voters. “If that’s how he runs his campaign, he is going to lose. I’d rather bet on those who voted before. When he stands up and says that I’m gonna get 30 per cent more black voters — I’m gonna get 30 per cent more of my people to turn out for me — what is Joe Six-Pack thinking?”

Mudcat suggests that John McCain could win Michigan while holding Ohio and Florida. And, unless Mr Obama changes course, “he ain’t gonna win Virgina either”.

“Instead of all the high-falutin’ exhortation about listening to the better angels, Mr Obama has gotta come out here — and time is short — and emphasise social justice.

“He should say, ‘I’m a black guy. I’m not gonna take the Michael Jackson treatment, but the problems of South Side Chicago are the same problems of the Appalachian mountains’. Big sonsofabitches are kicking the little sonsofabitches in the ass. Now I’m one of the little sonsofabitches, so I’m pissed off. Inside every rural Republican is a rural Democrat begging to get out. But we always trip over our johnsons.”’

Read the feature in full here