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Democrats lose House but hold on to Senate

Mark Johnston

4th November 2010

There were no real surprises in the US Midterms with the Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives - however, the Democrats maintained their control of the Senate.

At the time of writing the Democrat losses and Republican gains in the House and the Senate were equal with still some seats undecided. The Republicans have already indicated that they intend to reverse Obama’s healthcare reforms and cut government spending. Therefore, it will be imperative that Obama tries to find some common ground with the Republicans as both parties will need to work together if the US economy is going to recover.

Is it all bad for Obama?

History has shown that these results for Obama shouldn’t cause the Democrats to panic. For instance Ronald Reagan in 1982 and Bill Clinton in 1994 both won reelection after significant losses in the midterms.
1982 - Reagan - House -26 Senate +1
1994 - Clinton - House -52 Senate -8
2010 - Obama - House -60 Senate -6

However, the turnout was particularly low amongst the young and the African Americans who were instrumental in Obama election two years ago. This suggests that he has lost touch with many people as the Democrats disappeared in some big states. They will have to improve their communication and rethink how they are going to achieve goals that are common to both parties - more growth and employment. In future every policy must be viewed as - how will it improve the economic conditions of the economy?

This year’s election was one of the largest House shake-ups of the last 50 years.
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What next?
Megan McArdle in the Atlantic magazine summed it up quite well:
“The biggest wild cards are on tax cuts and health care. On tax cuts, as someone who thinks that we’re going to need to let the Bush tax cuts go in order to address America’s mounting entitlement problem, I think the worst-case scenario is that the GOP manages to bully their way to a full repeal. But perhaps optimistically, I think there’s at least a chance of a best-case scenario: in the Congressional stalemate, the Bush tax cuts expire. On health care, I think it’s likely that the GOP will try to defund much of the health care bill, while leaving the pre-existing condition rules, and perhaps the addition of adult children to their parents’ health insurance. If that happens, health care reform will collapse under its own weight, perhaps taking the US insurance market down with it. Can they do it? If they’re very smart and strategic, confining their defunding to health care, maybe.”

Have a look at the following links for further reports:
PBS News Hour
New York Times
BBC

Mark Johnston

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