Can Reform UK Seriously Challenge the Two Main Parties? Part 2

This is the second of two blogs examining Reform UK’s political prospects in the wake of the 2024 general election. Nigel Farage has stated that his party’s key aim is to replace the Conservatives as the main political opposition to Labour by the time of the 2029 general election. Although this is by no means inevitable, Reform has the potential to build on the gains made in 2024 by exploiting a favourable media ecosystem, professionalizing the party structure and competing strategically in upcoming elections before 2029.

6. A favourable media ecosystem

Reform’s 2024 election result did not take place in a political vacuum. Farage’s party benefited from a right-wing media ecosystem that has continued to amplify and endorse the Reform platform on immigration, culture wars, Brexit, the ‘out of touch’ liberal elite and Donald Trump. This coverage is likely to sustain a climate of anger and prejudice among some sections of the electorate that is likely to provide Farage’s party with more support in future. An important part of this media ecosystem is GB News, a right-wing TV station that promotes highly partisan and sometimes conspiratorial commentaries on current events. Three of Reform’s MPs, Farage, Richard Tice and Lee Anderson, have their own shows on this channel, which enable them to push the party’s agenda to a growing sympathetic audience. Sections of the right-wing press, notably The Telegraph, The Daily Mail and The Spectator, regularly carry articles denouncing ‘woke culture’, the ‘Remain’ establishment and asylum seekers, thereby making Reform’s arguments appear more persuasive. Furthermore, since X (formerly Twitter) has been taken over by the right-wing billionaire Elon Musk, Reform has received extensive publicity on the social media platform. In late January 2025, Cavendish Consultingreported that, since the 2024 general election, the five Reform MPs had posted 7,744 posts on X (just 3.5 per cent of the total number of MPs’ posts on X during this period) but these had received almost 50 million engagements (50 per cent of the total for all MPs). For the foreseeable future, this right-wing media ecosystem will enable Reform MPs to pose as radical populists representing the interests of ‘ordinary people’ against the ‘corrupt’ and ‘out of touch’ establishment elite at Westminster. Reform-friendly media-framing may also inflate perceptions of the party’s popularity and distort assessments of the electorate’s concerns, pushing the national political agenda to the right. Both developments will benefit Farage’s party.

7. Professionalising the party

It is often overlooked that Reform secured 5 MPs and over 4million votes at the 2024 general election with only a rudimentary political infrastructure (a small activist base, little data-targeting of constituencies and few functioning branches) and this begs the question how Farage’s party might perform in the future if it succeeds in developing a nationwide organizational structure. At the Reform conference in September 2024, Farage made it clear that this was a central aim, telling his audience ‘We will not realise our dream unless the people’s army of supporters are organised, unless the people’s army of supporters are helped to professionalise, unless that people’s army fight elections. What we have to do is to be credible. What we have to do is to be on the ground everywhere.’ Farage plans to ‘democratise’ decision-making in the party, build an extensive ground operation, based on a larger number of activists and 120 new constituency branches (Reform currently claims it has over 300 across the UK), and emulate the Lib Dem’s successful local ‘saturation’ campaigning tactics at elections. Such organizational expansion is likely to translate into greater electoral success for Reform but it may also increase the number of extremists and bigots within the party’s ranks, a damaging issue which surfaced during the 2024 election campaign when Reform was forced to disown several candidates because of racist remarks or far-right links.

8. Upcoming elections

Part of Reform’s strategy after the 2024 general election is to use the 2025 local elections and the 2026 Senedd elections in Wales to strengthen their foothold in UK politics and generate momentum for the 2029 general election. When it comes to the 2025 local elections, Farage’s party is starting from a very low base because, last May, Reform managed to secure the election of just two councillors. Nevertheless, Farage has stated that Reform will adopt ‘blanket’ campaigning tactics in the upcoming local elections and the party has over 2,000 applicants who want to stand as candidates this year. According to politics expert Professor Richard Rose, if, as seems likely, Farage’s party takes a significant number of council seats from the Conservatives in May 2025, then there may be pressure from the Tory grass roots to come to an agreement with Reform in time for the next general election. Rose further speculates that if Badenoch resists such a move, then more disillusioned Conservatives will endorse Farage’s party. Reform is also gearing up for the 2026 Senedd elections. This makes political sense since Reform secured 13 second places in Wales in the 2024 general election, notably in the south with its history of underinvestment and disillusionment with the two major parties. In addition, given that the 2026 Senedd elections will use the closed proportional list system which (unlike FPTP) more closely aligns seats to votes, Reform potentially are in a position to pick up 14-17 of the 96 seats and even take second place overall ahead of the Tories. Having said this, to maximise its impact, Reform will need to develop a set of credible policies (beyond immigration and Brexit) that gain traction among the Welsh electorate.

Conclusion

It is safe to assume that Reform does pose a real threat to the two main parties. If Farage’s party succeeds in developing a nationwide branch structure, it will be in a stronger position to make gains in the upcoming local and Senedd elections and target communities already susceptible to its right-wing message. Reform will also have the opportunity to gain ground if (1) the Labour government fails to improve living standards in more deprived areas and (2) the Conservatives and/or Labour adopt more right-wing policies in an attempt to marginalize Reform. In both cases, Farage’s party and its policies will appear to be validated and Reform’s electoral prospects and support base will be boosted.