Can Reform Serious Challenge the Two Main Parties? Part One

This is the first of two blogs that will consider whether, after the 2024 General Election, Reform UK is now in a position to mount an effective political challenge to Labour and the Conservatives. Last July, Nigel Farage’s party made something of a breakthrough, securing over 14 per cent of the vote and five parliamentary seats. Since then, Reform’s stock has continued to rise in the polls and Farage has said publicly that it is ‘certainly possible’ he could be Prime Minister after the 2029 general election. This blog will examine how Reform has built on its 2024 general election performance and what are the prospects for Farage’s party to make further gains in the future.

1. Reform UK and the Opinion Polls

According to the polling organization Findoutnow, support for Reform has increased from 22 to 26 per cent from late November 2024 to late January 2025. This growth has been achieved by Farage’s party holding on to virtually all those who voted for the party at the last general election, attracting more than 20 per cent of those who backed the Tories in 2024 and winning over 46 per cent of non-voters in 2024 who stated that they would ‘definitely vote’ next time. Furthermore, Findoutnow noted that, unlike Labour and the Conservatives, Reform has ‘not dropped in support over any of our voting intention polls since November.’ Other polling organisations, such as YouGov, have also recently reported that around 25-26 per cent of voters endorse Farage’s party. This level of support suggests that, if a general election was held now, Reform would win around 82 seats, a significant increase on its 2024 tally but still behind both Labour and the Conservatives.

Source: Electoral Calculus January 2025

2. Mobilising the ‘bro vote’?

Reform appears to have made inroads into the Gen Z ‘bro vote’ through skillful use of social media. According to a Crowdtangle analysis, during the 2024 general election campaign, Farage’s party had more social media page interactions across all platforms than any of its political rivals. By early December 2024, Reform had 308,100 TikTokfollowers (Labour had 233,000) and Farage himself had more than 1 million, around half of whom were under 25. A YouGov poll, published in mid-January 2025, suggests that Reform’s efforts to cultivate a young online support base have had an impact with 19 per cent of 18-24 year olds saying they would vote for the party at the next general election. The Conservatives attracted just 5 per cent of this age group. Nevertheless, Reform still has much work to do in order to mobilise the ‘bro vote’ because (1) the party primarily appeals to poorer young men without a university education – one of the groups least likely actually to turn out to vote at elections and (2) other parties are more popular among 18-24 year olds, such as Labour (36 per cent) and the Greens (22 per cent).

3. Reform UK membership

Another indicator that suggests Reform is making progress since the last general election is rising party membership. In late December 2024, the digital membership counter on Reform’s official website clicked past 131,680 – the Conservative membership total declared during the previous month’s Tory leadership contest – provoking a war of words between Farage and Kemi Badenoch about the accuracy of both parties’ figures. Farage declared it to be an ‘historic moment’ which signified that his party was ‘now the real opposition’. At its peak in 2015, UKIP had around 46,000 members, suggesting that Reform has greater momentum than its forerunner. By early February 2025, Reform’s membership (according to its own website) stood at 190,551, some way behind Labour but comfortably ahead of the Conservatives, Lib Dems and the Greens (see below). It should be noted, however, that a growing paper membership is no guarantee of electoral success. Under Jeremy Corbyn, Labour benefited from a large influx of new members but the party still lost the general elections of 2017 and 2019.

4. The ‘Farage factor’

In our media-driven age, politics is inextricably bound up with personality and image, and Nigel Farage is unquestionably the face of, and dominant figure in, Reform. Like him or loathe him, Farage’s populist touch was clearly evident during the 2024 general election. His decision to re-enter the political fray in June 2024 as Reform’s senior figure and parliamentary candidate for Clacton energized the party’s election campaign which, up until that point, had failed to cut through under Richard Tice’s lacklustre leadership. Farage’s personal contribution did much to secure five Reform MPs, over 14 per cent of the vote and 98 second place results. In Clacton, he rode a wave of popularity to take the seat on a 45.1 per cent swing from the Conservatives to Reform, the largest in the election. In the short to medium term, Farage would appear to be the Reform leader best placed to widen the party’s appeal and attract disaffected Tories and Labour voters through media appearances and rallies designed to reinforce his plain-speaking ‘man of the people’ image. An Ipsos Political Pulse Survey, published in November 2024, gave Farage a 28 per cent favourability rating, (ahead of Starmer (23 per cent) and Badenoch (21 per cent)) which reveals his ability to connect positively with some voters. Yet, the same survey also revealed that the Reform leader scored a 48 per cent unfavourability rating – undoubtedly reflecting the fact that he is a politician whose trenchant views sharply divide public opinion. With this in mind, he will need to boost his favourability rating if Reform is to make another significant national breakthrough in 2029 under his leadership.

5. The Conservative and Labour response

It is fair to say that neither the Conservatives nor Labour have yet hit on a winning strategy to contain Reform and this, in part, has allowed Farage’s party to prosper. The Tories are divided on how to respond to Reform UK. Some Conservatives, such as Robert Jenrick, have argued that his party needs to adopt policies similar to those endorsed by Reform in order to stop defections to its right-wing rival but those attracted to Farage’s platform are unlikely to stay with a ‘Reform-lite’ Tory Party. Other Conservatives have called for a merger with Reform to ‘unite the right’ to create a strengthened right-wing electoral force but some Tories have rejected this on the grounds that such a move would effectively allow Farage to take the Conservative Party prisoner. A YouGov survey, published in mid-January 2025, neatly illustrated the problem for Badenoch’s party as it attempts to avoid being supplanted by Reform as the effective political opposition to the Labour government. The poll revealed that while the Tories had attracted 4 per cent of Reform’s 2024 voters, they had lost 15 per cent of their own general election support to Farage’s party. A series of high-profile Tory defections since the general election, including Andrea Jenkyns, Marco Longhi and Tim Montgomerie, has reinforced the sense of a current Conservative drift towards Reform. Although Labour, at present, does not appear to face the same political threat from Farage’s party as the Tories (4 per cent of Labour’s 2024 voters have moved to Reform, according to the survey), it cannot afford to be complacent. Reform came second to Labour in 89 seats in 2024 in areas such as northern England and south Wales, where Farage’s party has the potential to make further gains. There are also disagreements within Labour over how to deal with Reform. Starmer and other government ministers have attempted to ignore Farage (e.g. over the Southport stabbings and ensuing riots in July-August 2024) to deprive him of media coverage and limit the influx of the disaffected into Reform’s ranks. Other Labour figures, however, maintain, that such an approach will not marginalize Farage and Reform should be held accountable at all times.