Biden and the debt deal

A fascinating insight into presidential-congressional relations

As ever when looking at topics in US Politics, we can never stray too far from the Constitution. Indeed, when looking at the government topics in essays, it's well worth referencing the important bits from that document.

American Politics students should be familiar with the gap between the expectations placed upon the President and the powers he has at his disposal to enact legislation. The Constitution of course hands all power to initiate legislation to Congress, as stated in Article 1 Section 1.* The Presidents legislative powers are much more limited, only being able to recommend matters form time to time to Congress, and holding the veto to block legislation. It is important to remember that the framers of the Constitution very much saw Congress as the centre of politics, with the executive head (with George Washington in mind) being above the fray. But since the 1930s the occupant of the White House has effectively become de facto chief legislator. In other words, the President is essentially hamstrung by the separation of powers put in place by the Founding Fathers who were cautious about creating a new political system that could lend itself to executive tyranny. For this reason modern Presidents must employ a range of techniques that can assist their power to persuade. FDR had his fireside chats via radio broadcast, Reagan was successful in using his personal charm, and use the more modern medium of television to appeal over the head of Congress. Various presidents have, of course, tried to exploit the honeymoon period, the short time where new White House incumbents ride a wave of popularity. LBJ was well known for exploiting his long time in the Senate to his advantage. Here we can make comparisons with Biden.

But, first, a bit of context. On the two year anniversary of Biden's inauguration PBS carried out a mini half term audit and described his time in office until that point as a bit of a 'mixed bag'. A major success was his infrastructure bill, but the domestic economic landscape doesn't look great.

But poll numbers seemed to reflect that voters place much more emphasis on the latter. The fact is that inflation, as is the case in a whole host of major economies, was high by recent historical standards, and while petrol prices fell, they hit an all time record of $5 a gallon in June 2022 and this barometer of the cost of living has left a mark.

It is no surprise, therefore, to discover that Biden's poll ratings at that time were less than stellar. In fact his approval ratings had been flatlining at just above 40% for the last several months. According the 538.com, the figure at the mid-point of his time as POTUS stood at just 43.7%. By comparison, at equivalent stages in their presidency reveals that Biden's predecessors rated as followed (following 786 days):

• Trump: 41.4%
• Obama: 48.1%
• Bush Jr: 55.7%
• Clinton: 45.9%
• Bush Sr: 85.8%
• Reagan: 41.1%

So when it came to the impasse between the President and Congress on raising the debt ceiling, many political experts wondered who would come out on top.

In an era of extreme polarisation in Washington, some pundits have claimed that the outcome was a victory for Biden. Here, for example, is David Smith in the Guardian:

"Sometimes presidencies are about things that don’t happen. Joe Biden will be breathing a mighty sigh of relief that the economic asteroid hurtling towards planet Earth turned into a near miss: America is apparently not going to default on his watch.

As a bipartisan deal to suspend the $31.4tn debt ceiling passed the House of Representatives on Thursday, Biden could also claim vindication for the underlying theory of his presidency: that in the age of polarisation it takes an apostle of bipartisanship and a 36-year veteran of the Senate to reach across the aisle and make deals with his opponents.

Only Biden, the argument goes, can bridge divides that seem unbridgeable in the age of Donald Trump."

So far, however, there has been no evidence of a significant bounce in the polls for Biden. 538 shows a slight fall in overall disapproval for Biden, but they remain at a level no first term president has managed to recover from by going on to secure a second term.

Because the limitations in engineering changes domestically are so severe (scholars have variously noted that: the President needs Congress; the President and Congress are like two halves of a dollar bill, both useless without the other half; trying to get Congress to act is like nailing a custard tart to a wall/pushing a wet mattress up a spiral staircase/pushing treacle up a hill with a fork) often White House incumbents will turn their attention to international affairs. Watch this space?

*It's worth a footnote to say that budgetary powers (the so-called 'power of the purse') are the preserve of the House of Representatives.