Academic analysis of US elections

Want Bill get Hill?

This week we were fortunate to welcome Professor Robert McKeever to the school’s Politics Society to deliver what was for us the third instalment in a series of talks by academic specialists in US Politics on the race for the White House 2008.

Robert Singh spoke in October: http://www.tutor2u.net/newsmanager/templates/?a=2637&z=15

David McKay spoke in November: http://www.tutor2u.net/newsmanager/templates/?a=2706&z=15

McKeever began with an overview of the contest, working backwards from the key date of 4 November through the campaign proper around September time onwards, the National Party Conventions in August and to where we are now; post the early primaries of Iowa (okay, technically a caucus) and New Hampshire.

McKeever suggested that these early contests were not as significant as people tend to make out. They are atypically representative and have a small number of delegates. Although occasionally they can shoot some candidates into the national limelight.

The big day is of course super duper Tuesday on 5 February where a sizeable number of big states come into play. (McKeever pointed out, looking ahead to the GE, that if a candidate wins the 11 biggest states they can carry the election.)

What about the candidates?

The Democrats are largely undifferentiated in terms of policy. Clinton is pitching on the basis of experience. Edwards focuses on his southern-ness and his ability to reach out to a core constituency (southerners) that most Democrats can’t. Obama presents himself as the new generation, a theme that JFK campaigned on over 40 years ago.

On the Republican side, the party is in a bit of disarray – mainly due to an attempt by candidates to distance themselves from GWB.

The GOP is unsure what comes next, due to for instance an apparent decline in the influence of religious and social conservatives.

The big one: who will win?

First, the nominations. Hillary will win. Why?

(1) The Democrat party machine is on her side (partly due to the influence of her husband)

(2) Experience. Differentiating from Obama’s newness.

(3) Base appeal.

For the Republicans, McKeever was less certain.

Giuliani hasn’t actively started campaigning and current frontrunner McCain has no appeal with the base. Romney has no appeal and the GOP faithful are unlikely to fall in love with him.

And the election itself? McKeever states that the Democrats are in a win-win situation since if they select Hillary they will turn out in numbers to vote. And if they select Obama they will turn out in numbers to vote.

But on the GOP side Republicans are less energised and either Democrat would beat any Republican nominee. But bear in mind that Hillary is predicted to win the nomination. So this means that despite the fact that over 40-45% of the American electorate have stated that they would not vote for Hillary under any circumstances, she is odds on to become the 44th president.