Resource Peaks

The idea of a resource peak originated with the concept of 'peak oil', which refers to the moment when a maximum rate of resource exploitation is experienced. It occurs just after peak ‘discovery’ and peak ‘production is able to occur. .

In the case of 'peak oil', a term first used in the 1950s, it referred to US oil production and forecast that oil production would peak in the late 1960s; a prediction that showed high accuracy in the event.

The idea of 'peak oil' has since been extrapolated to different locations and at different scales, ranging from individual oil wells to the global level and indicating the date from which net rates of exploitation becomes greater than rates of new discoveries – resulting in a net depletion of reserves.  

Nowadays, a resource peak can be estimated either for a given location or for the global supply of that resource. Estimations of a resource peak tend to be dynamic, as new technologies are developed or new reserves found. 

In the case of oil, new technology has not only allowed for new reserves to be discovered and extracted (such as in 'ultra-deep water', where the sea is over 2 km. deep), but has also allowed for the development of 'unconventional' reserves, where oil (and gas) is now being extracted from within different geological structures such as shale rock or from tar sands – delaying the ‘peak oil’ projection from first estimates.