Census 2021: You Can Prove Anything with Statistics

“Lies, damned lies and statistics” is a phrase describing the power of data used to bolster weak arguments. As geographers we rely on statistics to back up and exemplify our assertions, however, this can be problematical as the statistics we rely on might be secondary data or we have a small sample size. Plus there is the fact that 92.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.*

Nigel Farage was Reality Checked by the BBC last week after he claimed that 'London, Birmingham and Manchester are all now minority white cities' referring to figures released on the 29th November from the 2021 Census, which included ethnicity breakdowns for local authorities in England and Wales.

The BBC concluded that 'Mr Farage is wrong in most of his claim'. 53.8% of Londoners, 56.8% of Mancunians and 48.7% of people from Birmingham identified as white, so he was wrong on two counts. Farage himself cited that these were Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures so were highly reliable seeing as the ONS is an official government agency.

This is a classic example of using (or misusing in this case) statistics to fuel one's own agenda.

There is always a story behind a statistic and rather than taking data at face value, a good geographer will interrogate the data in order to find the reason behind it.

Let's think about Oxford or Cambridge for example. Do they show a high proportion of people with Level 3 and Level 4 qualifications because their populations are innately intelligent? Or is it the result of the influx of high achieving students to these university cities?

Conversely, does an area where there are lots of people with no qualifications mean that the education levels are poor? Or could it have more to do with the fact that the age profile represents a population who didn’t need to get formal qualifications to move into their chosen career?

Does a high proportion of owner occupied tenure suggest that the population is affluent as they have the salaries to get a mortgage? And does a high proportion of rented tenure suggest the opposite? Or might it be that it is a more affluent private rented population rather than a less affluent social rented profile?

With the 2021 Census data being released one thing is certain. One set of data should not be relied upon in isolation. Triangulating the data gives more meaning and adds more depth, giving the user a better understanding of the area being analysed and leading to more rounded conclusions.

*92.4% of statistics are not made up on the spot…I made that up!

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