Where next for the UK economy?

The Independent newspaper yesterday carried a pessimistic interview with the Chief Economist of the Bank of England (Spencer Dale) in which he commented on the risk of a “triple whammy” for the British economy - namely a dubious combination of anemic growth, rising inflation and much higher unemployment. The interview is available here. According to the piece “The economy, said Mr Dale, would not return to normal “for an awfully long time”.

Tough times ahead for sure but perhaps there are also grounds for optimism not least for manufacturing industries able to export their products to economies that are emerging from the downturn. And the latest (albeit provisional) data for UK GDP shows an economy much stronger than many people expected. The UK economy grew by 1.1% in the three months from April through to June - close to double the growth rate that was expected by the markets.

I have updated my keynote presentation on recent macroeconomic developments for the UK economy. This seventy-five slide presentation covers many of the main macro indicators and focuses on some of the risks and opportunities for Britain into the next crucial stage of the cycle.

Streamed presentation: Available here

PDF Handout: Available here