US rate rise causes hot flows of money

This is a good example for AS students which illustrates how a change in interest rates can affect the exchange rate. Late on Thursday the US Federal Reserve raised their discount rate - the price at which banks borrow emergency money from the Fed - from 0.5% to 0.75%.

The move was unexpected, and has given rise to plenty of speculation that they will follow this with a rise in their federal funds rate - the benchmark rate at which banks lend to each other and is used to set rates on mortgages and car loans.

That means that currency speculators have bought the dollar heavily, betting on further rate rises and pushing the exchange value of the dollar up to a nine-month high against a basket of other currencies.

The swift response in exchange markets shows exactly how freely floating exchange rates can be directly affected by a change in interest rates. As BBC News and the Telegraph report, central bankers are deeply concerned that such speculation could slow growth in output just as recovery is beginning, and officials from the Fed have been active in offering reassurance that the promise to keep rates low for an extended period remains in place. “The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy,” the Fed said.

In spite of that, the massive foreign exchange market is still looking for a chance to make a profit by buying the dollar now.