Unit 4 Macro: Growth Constraints - Population Factors

Demographic change can have a direct bearing over time on the growth and development potential of individual countries.

In some countries the size of the total population is declining as a result of net outward migration. If a nation loses younger workers, this can have a damaging effect on growth. The outward migration of skilled workers young and old is known as a brain drain.

The changing age-structure of a population also matters, leading for example to a fall in the ratio of workers to dependants.

Demographic change is important to many of the fast growing countries in Asia.

Most countries in East Asia are expected to experience a decline the portion of their working age population (15-64 years) to total population from now until 2025.

Seven countries are expected to see declines of 10 percent or more (including China, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam) while three will see declines of over 20 percent (Hong Kong SAR China, Korea and Singapore)

Countries such as Indonesia, Mongolia, Myanmar and Vietnam are forecast to see a decline in their population size due to a combination of emigration and demographics.

One of the BRIC countries – Russia – is experiencing a sustained decline in their population and their active labour force. High levels of net migration, rising death rates linked to exceptionally high accident rates and the effects of alcohol abuse have all contributed to a fall in population to below 150 million.