The New North - Population Shift

Lawrence Smith from UCLA spoke at the RSA tonight about his new book - The New North… in particular a cluster of eight countries he groups together as the NORCS - including Canada, Greeland, the USA, Sweden and Norway - nations he feels may be well placed to benefit from sizeable population shifts in the years ahead. The blurb from his publishers says this:

“In 2050, Northern countries – notably Canada, Russia and Scandinavia – will rise at the expense of southern ones. Patterns of human migration will be dramatically altered – and where we are born will be crucial. But, argues UCLA Professor Laurence Smith, humans are adaptable: and there will be gains as a new world takes shape. In this talk, Laurence Smith explores the four forces that are changing the world – climate change, rising population, globalisation and resource depletion – and attempts to predict how they will shape the world between now and 2050.”

Here are some notes from his talk, I will embed a link to the video from the RSA when it is published in a few days time

Smith asks us to step back and take a long run and global view of a transformation…......there are four key forces sharping the world - the New North and the NORCS in particular

1/ Demography - including rapid urbanisation, increasing rates of migration, changing fertility, aging

2/ Natural resources - projected demand in, known and likely reserves and accessibility of resources such as oil and natural gas

3/ Globalisation - including further trade deregulation, continued growth MNCs (many from emerging market countries), NAFTA, global data sharing

4/ Climate change - expected impacts associated with greenhouse gas loading

Behind Smith’s long run 40 year view there are some background assumptions
*Assumes there are incremental forseeable changes in technology
*Assumes there is no World War III
*Assumes no “hidden genies” (low probability of a high impact event such as a decade long recession or the collapse of globalisation)

Demography and the inexorable growth of cities
*Global population continues to rise (although with a slower rate expected sometime soon) and the age structure of the human race becomes more elderly everywhere on earth but especially in advanced nations
*2008 - for the first time in human history, the majority of people now live in cities (Read The Triumph of the City this summer!)
*There will be nine more mega cities (10m or more) by 2025
*Increasingly services provided by multinational businesses
*Strong pursuit of the world’s natural resources by multinationals - the intensity of the battle to get water will be fierce among MNCs - there will be a huge rise in % of world population that is water-stressed -hitting lower latitude countries and regions
*Cities are pretty green but the electricity needed to power cities will be staggering - we won’t be able to green ourselves off fossil fuels completely

Global warming is neither truly global nor truly warming .......The Far North is most affected by the estimated impact of climate change ....

Already seeing some evidence of this
*Potato farms are doing well in Greenland
*Documented evidence of grizzly-polar hybrids
*Annual migration of the world’s plants and animals northwards by 5 feet a day, 6.1km a decade
*Decline in summer time monthly Arctic Sea Ice Extent - North West Passage exposed in the summer of 2007 (new shorter shipping routes .... appeals to some!)

Inland in many Far North countries the impact inland of climate change will be often negative
*Shorter time windows for winter roads - a key form of transportation (watch Winter Truckers whilst you can!) - there will be rising access to sea but falling access by road
*Structural damage to buildings from thawing of permafrost

The battle (?) for the Arctic’s natural resources

The Arctic is thought to hold some of the largest undiscovered oil and natural resources - these are hugely disproportionately high reserves for an area that takes just 4% of the world’s surface area. Little wonder that there will be enormous economic and political pressure to claim these resources .....military competition may increase ... in 2008 the New York Times wrote of ... “a mad scramble for the Shrinking Arctic.”

Fortunately there seems to be a groundswell of cooperation between the major countries in this area. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a way forward for property rights in the oceans - it allows nations to petition for an extension to their sovereign water - the forty-year Norway/Russian dispute was settled in 2010.

Tar sands - an environmental catastrophe?
Smith spent some time in the talk looking at the tar sands oil endowment in Canada - estimated reserves are 175 billion barrels - the 2nd largest in the world behind Saudi Arabia (Iran is third). Oil sands production expected to rise from 1.3m barrels per day to 6mbpd - tar sands production is lucrative and NAFTA means that petroleum must be allowed to pass through Canada, USA and Mexico unhindered by tariffs. The marginal cost of extra barrel of oil produced is around $50 so with world oil prices above $100 a barrel, there are strong economic forces driving Canada tar sand production higher.

Generally the New North countries are well set to become MAJOR players in the global oil and gas supply. Economic power will tilt their way.

Expected population growth until 2050
India up 33%
Japan down 20%
Russia down 17%
Canada up 31%
USA up 27%
Norway up 22%

Canada
*Has recruited skilled immigrant workers from around the world - now very multi-cultural
*Younger migrants will help to stabilise population and help to combat aging
*Rapid growth of the indigenous population in the far north partly because of a surge in their economic power - people are returning to their homelands -a resettlement is happening as ancestral land claims are settled. Greenland on a path to full independence from Denmark .... hope and strong expectations of sustainable development are bringing people home