The End of Sunday Roasts?

Although pressure on food prices has eased over the last few months this is likely to be only a short term rest-bite according to a report published yesterday by researchers at the international think tank Chatham house. Within two decades the traditional Sunday roast could be an expensive delicacy.

Over the next two decades climate change and water shortages are likely to hit global food production and contribute to rising food prices. The UK and other countries are heading for a “food crunch” unless there is a significant increase in global food production. (Sounds very malthusian!). The hardest hit products are likely to be those Sunday lunch essentials- beef, pork and lamb because these meats are reared on a higher proportion of grain than the traditional white meat chicken. The report indicates the decreasing reliance on beef as a core component of the UK’s diet.

If food demand is going to be met over the next two decades food supply would have to grow by 50% by 2030. This target growth is likely to be difficult to achieve though due to climate change, water scarcity and competition for land.

Effects of the most recent food crisis:

Last year there were riots in Mexico over the price of tortillas
There were also food riots in Egypt, Bangladesh and Haiti and appeals for food aid in more than 30 African countries.
Food prices increased by 9% in 2006 and 24% in 2007.
A white sliced loaf in the Uk increased in price from 52p in 2000 to £1.26 in November 2008
A cost of a basket of 24 staple products, such as bread, milk, potatoes and cheese rose by 16% last year.

Food prices increases did subside in the later half of last year as commodity prices fell but this is likely to only be short term trend. The report says that food prices are likely to follow the rising oil price that will pick up post recession.

With these concerns the report recommends a new ‘International Energy Agency for Food’ to manage the global food system of food reserves and to help protect against future price hikes.

Further Reading

The Daily Telegraph article in full

To download the full report- The Feeding of the Nine Billion: Global Food Security for the 21st Century click here.