Surveys, statements and predictions for 2012

As one of many turn-of-the-year round-ups, the BBC has polled 34 ‘leading economists’ in the UK and EU to find out what they expect for the EU in 2012. Unfortunately this report of the results doesn’t give details, but says that25 of the 27 respondents expect recession to return to Europe next year, with many finding it fairly likely that the eurozone will break up, and 20% expecting that at least one member will leave during next year.

Also released today is a New Year message from John Cridland, Director General of the CBI. His theme is that 2012 will be the time for the UK to ‘power up’ and begin rebalancing its economy. The CBI’s report of his message is very clear, and should be very accessible to AS and A2 students:

“The CBI’s ‘vision for rebalancing’ makes clear that the unprecedented economic stability between 1993 and 2007 masked growing imbalances. The UK economy has become dominated by debt driven household and government consumption, which together accounted for 89% of GDP in 2009 – more than in France, Germany or the US.
To achieve sustainable growth in the medium to long-term, the economy has to become more driven by investment and exports, while allowing the burdens of both government and consumer debt to subside. Failing to rebalance alongside debt reduction would leave the economy struggling to grow.”

It goes on to make it clear that the prospects for successful rebalancing face a significant threat from continuing instability in the Eurozone, but should take advantage of “rise of middle-class consumers in emerging markets, spurring a greater demand for our services”, and investment into infrastructure, the digital economy and renewable energy - with private sector investment as the key factor.

Finally a Radio 4 broadcast of a discussion with the BBC’s special correspondent Lyse Doucet, North America Editor Mark Mardell, Newsnight’s Economics Editor Paul Mason and diplomatic correspondent James Robbins sounds like a worthwhile 50 minutes. This is to be broadcast on Friday 30th at 8.00pm and Saturday 31st at 1.10pm, or can be downloaded as a podcast via this link.