Signs of a returning ‘feel good’ factor?

The search for green shoots goes on! There are some tentative signs that sentiment among consumers is beginning to rebound albeit from a very low level. Household saving is rising and the annual growth of consumer borrowing continues to slide - indeed in recent weeks the amount of consumer credit has started to fall for the first time since 1993. Personal borrowing fell by £600m in July 2009 - a figure that looks large but pails compared to the aggregate level of accumulated consumer debt.

Sentiment about our own financial situation is also improving. There is plenty that can go wrong from here, not least the impact of further hefty increases in unemployment and forthcoming tax rises. But the unprecedented macroeconomic policy stimulus has at least provided a floor to the collective collapse in consumer confidence that took hold a year or so ago.

The latest Nationwide consumer confidence indicators reinforces the idea that households are rebuilding their finances and are at least considering making a major purchase such as a new car or television. The car scrappage scheme has boosted new vehicle registrations and heavy price discounts and bundled offers (e.g. a new blu-ray player with each new TV) seems to have encouraged people into the audio-visual showrooms.