Of lemons and light bulbs

In his book Everlasting Light Bulbs, John Kay dispels the myth that inventors have already came up with a light bulb that lasts forever, and at a reasonable cost. However, light bulb manufacturers have always managed to keep it under covers somehow (through bribery, blackmail or even assassination in some versions of the story!) because such a light bulb would destroy the market for light bulbs and put the manufacturers out of business.

This conspiracy theory was meant to demonstrate the flaws of capitalism, how a market system does not produce the most efficient outcome (everlasting light bulbs for all). Other versions of this anti-capitalist theory include “we’ve already found the cure to cancer/AIDS/malaria/etc. but the formula has been suppressed to profit pharmaceutical companies, so people are dying needlessly”. However, in his original 1999 article here, John manages to argue successfully that such a situation cannot exist by running through all three possibilities: in perfect competition, a monopoly/cartel, and anywhere in between. The only possible conclusion he draws is that such a light bulb has either not been invented yet or is too expensive to be marketed.

However, new evidence appears on the horizon, showing that everything may not work as smoothly as John had hypothesised. A few weeks ago, the BBC ran a piece on “the miracle berry”, a berry that makes everything you eat for the next half hour taste sweet. Because it is a fruit, it has close to zero calories. Now imagine how much of an impact it would have upon a world where diabetes and obesity are becoming overwhelming issues. Being direct substitutes, it would invalidate any need for sugars or artificial sweeteners, the latter almost always providing an unpleasant aftertaste.

The surprising thing is that it has been discovered by the West since the 1960s. A fruit with such potential health benefits, why have we never seen it on the market? That’s because on the eve of its commercial launch in 1974, the US Food and Drugs Administration declared it as a food additive which required several more years of extensive testing. That essentially forced the then enterprising company, Miralin, out of business as it had neither the money nor the time to invest into such ventures. Though the FDA has always denied that it was pressurised into the move by “Big Sugar” industries, there have been evidence of sabotage and burglary.

So what happened here? What was the discrepancy between John’s theory and Miralin’s reality? Were the transaction costs simply too great? Miralin did not rent out its services as John had predicted it would, would appeasing the sugar industries have achieved a better result? I guess we’ll never know. The miracle berry is still in a stasis of regulatory limbo in the US – it’s perfectly legal to grow and sell it, but its usage as a food additive is heavily regulated by the FDA. Thankfully, Japanese scientists have managed to extract the miraculin (the rogue glycoprotein which tricks the tastebuds into believing sour foods are actually sweet) and have been marketing it in special Miracle Fruits cafés. Akerlof’s market for lemons has never been so buoyant.

Certainly puts a new spin on the saying “when life gives you lemons, make lemonade”!