More ways to estimate the level of economic activity

 The race seems to be on (Penny got ahead of me on this) to find ways to gauge the level of economic activity. The most obvious start point is to use a tool like the BBC's Economy tracker which includes the clear favourite of GDP, inflation and unemployment. But as the graph I've used to illustrate this blog shows, there are plenty more beside.

The lipstick index goes alongside old favourites like the hemline index, which have been commented on and discussed elsewhere. They don't seem terribly persuasive to me!

House prices often seem to dominate the UK discussion, but I prefer the skyscraper index myself: a sure indicator of impending crashes!

I'm sure harder economic data like export orders are a far more powerful predictor, and one of my favourites is the link between GDP and traffic through the Suez Canal.

For many years, the number of migrants passing over the US-Mexico border seemed a good measure of the strength of the US economy relative to Mexico.

I think it's worth remembering the key driver of the economy in history - and in some of the most undeveloped economies of the world today. It's simply the weather: