In the Long Run

An acquaintance who works on the news desk at the BBC tells me that the deck has been cleared for a full day of “recession coverage” when the GDP data for the UK is published on Friday morning. With zero growth in the second quarter (likely to be revised downwards) and negative growth in the three months covering July through to September, the broadcasters will be calling the recession and sending reporters out far and wide to test the temperature of the economy.

The first recession since 1992 is important news but a sense of the long run is also important. I will be trying to put the data in context with my students by looking at how the latest figures fit into the cycles of the last forty or fifty years. To that end I have produced an eight chart PowerPoint using EcoWin which looks at

Real GDP since 1955 Unemployment since 1972 Consumer price inflation since 1960 Policy interest rates since 1930 Employment rate since 1972 Construction industry production since 1955 Capital investment spending since 1955 Real household disposable income since 1955

The PowerPoint can be downloaded here The_Long_Run_Perspective.ppt