Fallout from the recession

Fall out from the recession - according to the latest macroeconomic forecasts, in 2009

Real GDP is likely to contract by 4% Consumer spending will fall by 3.5% Business fixed investment will shrink by 9% Exports of goods and services will decline by 10% Imports will dip by 7.5% Manufacturing output will be 15% lower at the end of 2009 than at the start Company profits will drop by 25% Average UK house prices will fall by another 20% Unemployment will rise by more than 600,000 during the year Productivity (output per worker) will contract by 1.4% Real household disposable income will remain flat The savings ratio will more than double from 2% to over 4% CPI inflation will drop below the 2% target RPI inflation will be negative for most of the year averaging -1.5% Global GDP will shrink by 2% World trade in goods and services will contract by 10%

Consider the links between these economic indicators.

The consensus forecast is that all of these indicators will show an improvement in 2010 compared to 2009 - as the world and UK economy attempts to emerge from the recession. But when does a recovery start? And what might bring it about?