Consequences of One Child Policy Play Out

There has been much coverage in the last few days of the latest data on China’s population trends and in particular strong evidence about the ageing of her population. The demographic dividend of the fast population growth during the Mao era is well and truly over.

The annual growth of the Chinese population is falling away - the average annual growth was 0.57% over the last decade, down from 1.07% in 1990-2000. And when the age structure of the population is analysed, we find that the number of people over the age of 60 rose by about 48m, reaching 13.3 per cent of the population. China’s total population is now 1.339bn – up 5.84 per cent from the last decade. The number of old people in China has grown by more than the population of Spain over the last ten years and there is growing pressure for a reversal of the controversial one-child policy.

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal

“Under China’s one-child policy, many (but not all) couples who have more than one child face fines of several months’ salary and can lose their jobs if they work for the state. The program has also led to some forced abortions and sterilizations.”

People under 14 now make up 16.6% of the population, down from 23% 10 years ago. And the peak in the size of China’s labour force is now thought to be just a few years away.

This video from the Wall Street Journal is excellent - really well explained discussion on some of the longer term consquences for China

Some background articles

Telegraph: China’s population ageing rapidly

Guardian: Will China’s peak herald the “peak human”?

BBC News: China census shows population ageing and urban

Wall Street Journal: China’s One-Child Plan Faces New Fire