China the hungry teenager

Hamish McRae is on excellent form in this piece in the Independent - China’s latest growth surge is the result of an enormous fiscal stimulus and a massive (and unsustainable) rise in credit.

One of the short term consequences is that China’s turbo-charged growth is once again putting upward pressure on world commodity prices. Just as a hungry teenager will happily eat food long into the night, China’s incremental demand for natural resources and manufactured components is threatening another rise in cost push inflationary pressures in the world economy. This is one of the inflation risks facing developed countries and a factor behind fears of a rise in short term and long term interest rates before a recovery gains sufficient traction.