Blog
Betting on Obama
19th June 2008
The 2008 US Presidential election marks a fresh high in interest and activity in predictions markets. Perhaps these predictions markets where afterall people are putting their money where their mouths are, might be more accurate than traditional opinion polls?
For the record, the latest Intrade numbers show that the markets predict a 63% changes that Barack Obama will win 2008 US Presidential Election. If you think it is more likely that he will do this, than this you should buy at 63. Obviously if Obama does win then the odds are 100 and you will win a multiple of the bet made at 63. For the moment, 62.9 = $6.29.
If you think it is less likely you should sell. if Obama loses, his odds fall to zero.
Your call! Obama is slipping a little in the Intrade markets but not significantly so for now.
Geoff Riley
Geoff Riley FRSA has been teaching Economics for over thirty years. He has over twenty years experience as Head of Economics at leading schools. He writes extensively and is a contributor and presenter on CPD conferences in the UK and overseas.