Explanations
Bayes Theorem and the risks of anti-body tests
8th April 2020
What are the risks of using a less-than-perfect antibody test? The question has an Oxbridge Economics interview quality to it!
In fact this question has been used before and it so pertinent to the debate over when the UK government among others might opt to roll our an antibody test perhaps as a prelude to people being able to carry immunity certificates on their smart phone.
My article of the day comes from Tom Chivers who uses Bayes Theorem to describe the alarming consequences of a less-than-perfect antibody test.
Please read: https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-far-away-are-immunity-passports/
On immunity passports, Bayesian statistics, and why a "95% accurate" test saying you've had Covid-19 does not mean that there's a 95% chance you've had Covid-19
— Tom Chivers (@TomChivers) April 7, 2020
(I think this is quite an important point that doesn't seem to have been addressed much?)https://t.co/DvFy6xAEP5
Geoff Riley
Geoff Riley FRSA has been teaching Economics for over thirty years. He has over twenty years experience as Head of Economics at leading schools. He writes extensively and is a contributor and presenter on CPD conferences in the UK and overseas.
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