Could 2009 be a boom year for UK holiday destinations?

There have been plenty of false dawns before. Remember the lovely weather last May? That was supposed to lead to a boom in domestic holiday bookings, but demand fizzled out well before August. However there seems to be a more credible list of reasons why demand for UK holidays might receive a boost this year…

This article in the Independent certainly suggests some optimism amongst stakeholders in the domestic tourism industry.

What are the positive factors that might lead to higher demand in 2009?

- Recession: more households struggling with unemployment or reduced working hours, means less disposable income to spend on overseas holidays.

- Exchange rates: the pounds significant depreciation against the Euro and Dollar leaves overseas holidays looking particularly expensive (certainly compared with the same trips last year)

- Lower supply in the mass market package holiday industry. I hear from ex-colleagues at TUI and Thomas Cook that the two oligopolists have taken over two million holidays out of the market for Summer 2009 in an attempt to improve capacity utilisation and maximise revenues per passenger. As a result, a decrease in holiday supply is likely to mean either higher prices and/or fewer people holidaying abroad

- Marketing activitiesL substantial investment by the main regional tourist boards to promote the UK as a tourist destination to the Brits. The promotional activities of the UK’s “honeypot” destinations (Devon, Cornwall, Dorset, Lake District, Yorkshire Dales etc) are much more aggressive this year than last.

- Consumers trading down: poor economic conditions usually see households spending less on a main holiday break rather than missing the holiday altogether. I would expect to see self-catering accommodation in particular benefit from this change (good news for the holiday cottage agents)

So will 2009 really prove to be a boom period for the domestic holiday industry? Are there any factors that might put UK households off switching their chosen destination from the guaranteed sunshine of Spain, Turkey or Greece? As I look at the wintry scene outside the tutor2u office, nothing immediately springs to mind…