by-elections in british politics
Parliamentary by-elections occur when a Member of Parliament dies, resigns his seat to take up another post, or where an MP loses the right to sit in parliament because for other seasons. A by-election takes place to fill a vacant seat - there were ten such elections during the 1997-2001 Parliament, a figure much lower than in the 1992-97 Parliament.
The performance of the governing party in by-elections is often dire (or worse!) Consider the table above which shows the percentage change in the vote of the incumbent government at the time the by-election takes place. All of the by-elections in 1992-1997 saw a sharp fall in the % share of the vote for the Conservatives. At Christchurch there was a staggering 32% decline in the Tory vote. At Wirral South in February 1997, the Tory vote collapsed by 17% - an omen of what was to befall the Conservatives at the General Election a few months later.
Labour has not fared well in the by-elections since they won office in May 1997. The chart below shows the % change in their vote at each of the ten by-elections during the last parliament
The collapse in the vote at Hamilton South came at the expense of the Scottish National Party. But it is worth noting that the scale of the swings against Labour in the last five years have been relatively smaller than for the previous Government. By-elections are often the focus of protest votes from voters disillusioned with the performance of the government. What might have happened to the Labour vote had there been a by-election in the immediate aftermath of the Autumn 2000 fuel crisis? The chart below indicates the problem that the Conservatives have had in making headway against the Labour Government at by-elections. Apart from a good showing at Uxbridge in 1997 (and a swing to the Conservatives in support of Michael Portillo in 1999), they have not achieved the swings in support that is often the preserve of the main opposition party during a Parliament.
Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats and before them the Liberals and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) have an enviable record at Parliamentary by-elections. Indeed the Lib Dems regard most by-elections as a heaven sent opportunity to increase their representation in the House of Commons. Victories in Newbury, Christchurch, Eastleigh during the 1992-97 Parliament were sensational - there was a huge swing to the Liberals - in some cases they have managed to jump from 3rd place at the preceding General Election to first place in the by-election.
Why have the Lib Dems done so well? Partly it is the natural impact of the "protest vote" - as a centre party, The Lib Dems are ideally placed to pick up the votes of disaffected Tories and Labour voters who want to give the government a bloody nose. Since 1997 the Liberals have continued to do well. There was a by-election in Winchester after the losing Tory candidate fought a court action to have the 1997 election result declared null and void (he had lost by two votes). In the subsequent re-run, the Lib Dems won with a majority of over 20,000 (they held onto the seat comfortably at the June 2001 general election)
Turnout tends to be lower at by-elections. The life of the government is rarely under threat and unless there are pressing local issues that bring voters out, or where the expected result is very much up in the air, the average turnout is lower. This is shown in the chart below
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