partisan dealignment
In recent decades we have seen clear evidence of partisan dealignments - this means that fewer voters are "strongly attached" to a political party - the emotional bond of loyalty between voter and his/her party is in decline implying that the electorate is becoming more volatile in its voting behaviour and more likely to adopt a judgemental approach before casting a vote.
Partisan dealignment suggests that short-term political factors become more important in determining voting behaviour. Events and government's handling of these events, together with a judgement by the electorate on the overall performance of the government and the Prime Minister are assuming increased importance in most models of voting behaviour.
Another implication of dealignment is the greater incidence of tactical voting - particularly at by-elections but also at national elections. The extent to which tactical voting occurs can be over-exaggerated - but there is some evidence that tactical voting against the Conservative cost a number of seats at the 1997 General Election (aided in part by the deliberate encouragement of tactical voting by some national newspapers).
A shrinking in natural core support
Major parties have experienced a shrinkage in natural core support and must appeal to a broader coalition of voters if they are to achieve a working majority at a General Election.
Partisan and class de-alignment are of course related to each other. Once class loyalities weaken it becomes easier to cross over to another party at election time. These two quotes from election expert David Sanders reinforce this view
"The counterpart to the decline of class-based voting is a decline in partisan identification"
"Electoral tribalism has declined and consumer voting has continued to grow" (David Sanders)
Explaining partisan de-alignment
How can we explain the declining strength of allegiance between the voter and a particular party? Several explanations have been offered by voting theorists:
Greater political awareness and socialisation
Intensive mass media coverage and decline of deference
Disillusionment both with parties and politicians
Poor performance of governments - not meeting (unrealistic?) expectations
Decline in strength of ideology?
Disjuncture between policies of parties and views of natural core support
De-energising effects of internal party reforms
Emergence/ re-birth of new parties
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